Margaret Sullivan Pepe

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ROC curves are a popular method for displaying sensitivity and specificity of a continuous diagnostic marker, X, for a binary disease variable, D. However, many disease outcomes are time dependent, D(t), and ROC curves that vary as a function of time may be more appropriate. A common example of a time-dependent variable is vital status, where D(t) = 1 if a(More)
BACKGROUND Childhood obesity increases the risk of obesity in adulthood, but how parental obesity affects the chances of a child's becoming an obese adult is unknown. We investigated the risk of obesity in young adulthood associated with both obesity in childhood and obesity in one or both parents. METHODS Height and weight measurements were abstracted(More)
Accurate diagnosis of disease is a critical part of health care. New diagnostic and screening tests must be evaluated based on their abilities to discriminate diseased from nondiseased states. The partial area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a measure of diagnostic test accuracy. We present an interpretation of the partial area(More)
Recent developments in such areas of research as geneexpression microarrays, proteomics, and immunology offer new approaches to cancer screening (1). The surge in research to develop cancer-screening biomarkers prompted the establishment of the Early Detection Research Network (EDRN) by the National Cancer Institute (2). The purpose of the EDRN is to(More)
With recent advances in mass spectrometry techniques, it is now possible to investigate proteins over a wide range of molecular weights in small biological specimens. This advance has generated data-analytic challenges in proteomics, similar to those created by microarray technologies in genetics, namely, discovery of 'signature' protein profiles specific(More)
Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) regression methodology is used to identify factors that affect the accuracy of medical diagnostic tests. In this paper, we consider a ROC model for which the ROC curve is a parametric function of covariates but distributions of the diagnostic test results are not specified. Covariates can be either common to all(More)
A class of statistics based on the integrated weighted difference in Kaplan-Meier estimators is introduced for the two-sample censored data problem. With positive weight functions these statistics are intuitive for and sensitive against the alternative of stochastic ordering. The standard weighted log-rank statistics are not always sensitive against this(More)
Positive and negative predictive values of a diagnostic test are key clinically relevant measures of test accuracy. Surprisingly, statistical methods for comparing tests with regard to these parameters have not been available for the most common study design in which each test is applied to each study individual. In this paper, we propose a statistic for(More)
High throughput technologies, such as gene expression arrays and protein mass spectrometry, allow one to simultaneously evaluate thousands of potential biomarkers that could distinguish different tissue types. Of particular interest here is distinguishing between cancerous and normal organ tissues. We consider statistical methods to rank genes (or proteins)(More)
The accuracy of a medical diagnostic test is often summarized in a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. This paper puts forth an interpretation for each point on the ROC curve as being a conditional probability of a test result from a random diseased subject exceeding that from a random nondiseased subject. This interpretation gives rise to new(More)