Marcus Kappler

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In this paper we analyze the macroeconomic forecasts of the Consensus Forecasts for 12 countries over the period from 1996 to 2006 regarding bias and information efficiency. A pooled approach is employed which permits the evaluation of all forecasts for each target variable over 24 horizons simultaneously. It is shown how the pooled approach needs to be(More)
Hours worked is a time series of interest in many empirical investigations of the macroeconomy. Estimates of macro elasticities of labour supply, for example, build on this variable. Other empirical applications investigate the response of hours worked to a shock to technology on the basis of the real business cycle model. Irrespective of the problem being(More)
The aim of this paper is to assess the dimension of factors and shocks that drive financial conditions, and in particular financial stress in the euro area. A second aim is to construct summary indices on the conditions and level of stress in financial markets with the aid of a dynamic factor model. By analysing 149 newly compiled monthly time series on(More)
The aim of this paper is to take a structured approach at estimating the coefficients of factors explaining movements of the labour share across countries. In particular, we focus on proper dynamic specification and test the validity of the homogeneity assumption of slope coefficients frequently implied in previous studies. We employ fixed effect estimators(More)
The introduction of new needleless devices as demanded by the US Department of Labor Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has caused problems with the reconstitution of antihaemophilic factor in emergency situations. Our aim therefore was to evaluate the feasibility of a needleless device for reconstitution of antihaemophilic factor for(More)
The aim of this paper is to construct an indicator of potential growth for developed countries using the insights of the theoretical and empirical growth literature. The Pooled Mean Group Estimator of Pesaran, Shin and Smith (1999) that employs a panel data technique is used. This estimator is suited for integrated annual macroeconomic panel data sets to(More)
The study analyses the business cycles of the G7 countries in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework comprising output, nominal interest rate and inflation. Common and countryspecific supply, demand and nominal shocks of each G7 country are identified, and the corresponding shock propagation channels are computed. We establish the statistical(More)
This paper extends the recent literature that exclusively looks at the static link between bilateral trade intensity and business cycle synchronisation. A cross section augmented VAR framework with an unobservered common factor structure is used in order to apply the concept of Granger causality to test for dynamic links between variables. We conclude that(More)
In this paper we analyze the macroeconomic forecasts of the Consensus Forecasts for 12 countries over the period from 1996 to 2006 regarding bias and information efficiency. A pooled approach is employed which permits the evaluation of all forecasts for each target variable over 24 horizons simultaneously. It is shown how the pooled approach needs to be set(More)
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