Marco Ajelli

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BACKGROUND Individual-based models can provide the most reliable estimates of the spread of infectious diseases. In the present study, we evaluated the diffusion of pandemic influenza in Italy and the impact of various control measures, coupling a global SEIR model for importation of cases with an individual based model (IBM) describing the Italian(More)
We describe the real-time modelling analysis conducted in Italy during the early phases of the 2009 A/H1N1v influenza pandemic in order to estimate the impact of the pandemic and of the related mitigation measures implemented. Results are presented along with a comparison with epidemiological surveillance data which subsequently became available. Simulated(More)
Little is known on how different levels of population heterogeneity and different patterns of human mobility affect the course of pandemic influenza in terms of timing and impact. By employing a large-scale spatially explicit individual-based model, founded on a highly detailed model of the European populations and on a careful analysis of air and railway(More)
BACKGROUND In recent years large-scale computational models for the realistic simulation of epidemic outbreaks have been used with increased frequency. Methodologies adapt to the scale of interest and range from very detailed agent-based models to spatially-structured metapopulation models. One major issue thus concerns to what extent the geotemporal(More)
During summer 2007 Italy has experienced an epidemic caused by Chikungunya virus - the first large outbreak documented in a temperate climate country - with approximately 161 laboratory confirmed cases concentrated in two bordering villages in North-Eastern Italy comprising 3,968 inhabitants. The seroprevalence was recently estimated to be 10.2%. In this(More)
Social contact patterns among individuals encode the transmission route of infectious diseases and are a key ingredient in the realistic characterization and modeling of epidemics. Unfortunately, the gathering of high quality experimental data on contact patterns in human populations is a very difficult task even at the coarse level of mixing patterns among(More)
In some Southern Italy areas Hepatitis A still represents a serious public health issue. In 1996 a big epidemics in Puglia led that region to adopt a mass vaccination programme. In this paper a basic mathematical model for the temporal trends of Hepatitis A Virus (HAV) in Southern Italy is proposed and investigated. The model includes the main distinctive(More)
BACKGROUND The WHO suggested that governments stockpile, as part of preparations for the next influenza pandemic, sufficient influenza antiviral drugs to treat approximately 25% of their populations. Our aim is two-fold: first, since in many countries the antiviral stockpile is well below this level, we search for suboptimal strategies based on treatment(More)
Viral hepatitis A, as other endemic diseases, represents a public health priority worldwide. To study long-time scale human pathogens through individual-based simulations, the development of a dynamic network of contacts is required. In this work, we introduce an individual-based model accounting for the birth and death of the individuals, the generation of(More)
BACKGROUND The 2014 epidemic of Ebola virus disease in parts of west Africa defines an unprecedented health threat. We developed a model of Ebola virus transmission that integrates detailed geographical and demographic data from Liberia to overcome the limitations of non-spatial approaches in projecting the disease dynamics and assessing non-pharmaceutical(More)