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The objective of this study was to develop and apply a dynamic mathematical model of VZV transmission to predict the effect of different vaccination strategies on the age-specific incidence and outcome of infection. To do so a deterministic realistic age-structured model (RAS) was used which takes account of the increased potential for transmission within(More)
Many countries are currently studying the possibility of mass vaccination against varicella. The objective of this study was to provide a comprehensive picture of the pre-vaccine epidemiology of the varicella zoster virus (VZV) to aid in the design of immunization programs and to adequately measure the impact of vaccination. Population-based data including(More)
The epidemiology of herpes zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) was quantified from a variety of data sources and the potential cost-effectiveness of vaccination assessed. The annual incidence and severity of zoster increases sharply with age, as measured by physician consultation and hospitalisation rates, average length of stay, average proportion of(More)
AIM Clinical trials have shown prophylactic human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines to be effective against infection and disease. We examined whether HPV vaccination has the potential to be cost-effective. METHODS A cohort model of the natural history of HPV was developed, which fits simultaneously Canadian age and type-specific data for infection, cervical(More)
Many countries are studying currently the possibility of mass vaccination against varicella. The objective of this study was to provide a complete picture of the pre-vaccine epidemiology of the Varicella-Zoster Virus in England and Wales to aid in the design of immunisation programs. Population-based data including general practitioner sentinel(More)
BACKGROUND The extent of cross-protection is a key element in the choice of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine to use in vaccination programmes. We compared the cross-protective efficacy of the bivalent vaccine (HPV 16 and 18; Cervarix, GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals, Rixensart, Belgium) and quadrivalent vaccine (HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18; Gardasil, Merck,(More)
We present data to confirm that exposure to varicella boosts immunity to herpes-zoster. We show that exposure to varicella is greater in adults living with children and that this exposure is highly protective against zoster (Incidence ratio=0.75, 95% CI, 0.63-0.89). The data is used to parameterise a mathematical model of varicella zoster virus (VZV)(More)
Our aim was to examine the potential incremental impact of vaccinating boys against human papillomavirus (HPV) on vaccine-type infection in females and males, using an individual-based HPV transmission-dynamic model. Under base assumptions (vaccine efficacy = 99%, duration of protection = 20 years, coverage = 70%), vaccinating 12-year-old boys, in addition(More)
OBJECTIVE To model the impact of universal varicella vaccination in Australia. METHODS The results of an Australia-wide serosurvey for varicella zoster virus (VZV) immunity were used to parameterise realistic, age-structured deterministic models (RAS) developed by Brisson and colleagues. We examined the impact of a vaccination program for one-year-olds(More)
The development of models is based on assumptions, which inevitably embed a level of uncertainty. Quantifying such uncertainty is particularly important when modeling human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine effectiveness; the natural history of infection and disease is complex, and age- and type-specific data remain scarce and incomplete. The aim of this study(More)