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Links between licit and illicit economies fuel processes of conflict in countries mired in irregular warfare. However, it is often infeasible to gather demographic and economic data in the war zone that illuminate such links. Combining remote sensing data with local surveys offers an alternative to direct data collection. We present and validate an(More)
EADS North America and George Mason University have partnered to build analytical tools for border security that incorporate social, cultural, behavioral and organizational aspects of interactions among border security forces, smugglers and the population and represent integrated technology architectures made up of fixed and mobile sensor and surveillance(More)
Antiterrorism analysis requires that security agencies blend evidence on historical patterns of terrorist behavior with incomplete intelligence on terrorist adversaries to predict possible terrorist operations and devise appropriate countermeasures. We model interactions between reactive, adaptive and intelligent adversaries embedded in minimally sufficient(More)
We introduce the notion of strategic uncertainty for bound-edly rational, non-myopic agents as an analog to the equilibrium selection problem in classical game theory. We then motivate the need for and feasibility of addressing strategic uncertainty and present an algorithm that produces decisions that are robust to it. Finally, we show how agents'(More)
In this paper we introduce a workflow for multiagent modeling that relies on piecemeal calibration to verify the model, and discuss how modelers can organize this workflow to accelerate model building, improve the quality and technical soundness of the final model and be able to attribute dynamics of model outputs to causal mechanisms represented in the(More)
We report the results of developing a novel framework based on participatory social simulation to determine the development needs of populations. The framework remedies some of the shortcomings of survey-based need elicitation approaches in armed conflict or sensitive environments. We implemented the framework as a “development game” with the(More)
Links between licit and illicit economies fuel conflict in countries mired in irregular warfare. We argue that in Afghanistan, cultivating poppy and trading drugs bring stability to farmers who face the unintended consequences of haphazard development efforts while lacking alternative livelihoods and security necessary to access markets. Drug trafficking(More)
A methodological approach is reported to produce a context analysis in South Afghanistan under the banner of Do No Harm (DNH). The difficult work environment for locals, development workers and researchers alike is briefly described; and the problem that is supposed to be solved is derived from it, namely how to elicit the needs and requirements of the(More)