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Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle
TLDR
It will be substantially harder to quantify the range of possible changes in the hydrologic cycle than in global-mean temperature, both because the observations are less complete and because the physical constraints are weaker.
Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C
TLDR
A comprehensive probabilistic analysis aimed at quantifying GHG emission budgets for the 2000–50 period that would limit warming throughout the twenty-first century to below 2 °C, based on a combination of published distributions of climate system properties and observational constraints is provided.
Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne
TLDR
It is found that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario, and policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets.
Monte Carlo SSA: Detecting irregular oscillations in the Presence of Colored Noise
Singular systems (or singular spectrum) analysis (SSA) was originally proposed for noise reduction in the analysis of experimental data and is now becoming widely used to identify intermittent or
Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases
TLDR
Results from the ‘climateprediction.net’ experiment are presented, the first multi-thousand-member grand ensemble of simulations using a general circulation model and thereby explicitly resolving regional details, finding model versions as realistic as other state-of-the-art climate models but with climate sensitivities ranging from less than 2 K to more than 11’K.
Quantifying Uncertainties in Climate System Properties with the Use of Recent Climate Observations
We derive joint probability density distributions for three key uncertain properties of the climate system, using an optimal fingerprinting approach to compare simulations of an intermediate
Climate Change 2014 : Synthesis Report
Core Writing Team Rajendra K. Pachauri (Chair), Myles R. Allen (United Kingdom), Vicente R. Barros (Argentina), John Broome (United Kingdom), Wolfgang Cramer (Germany/France), Renate Christ
Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C
The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 1.5 °C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 0.9 °C from the mid-nineteenth century to the present
Constraining the Ratio of Global Warming to Cumulative CO2 Emissions Using CMIP5 Simulations
AbstractThe ratio of warming to cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide has been shown to be approximately independent of time and emissions scenarios and directly relates emissions to temperature. It
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