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Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle
What can we say about changes in the hydrologic cycle on 50-year timescales when we cannot predict rainfall next week? Eventually, perhaps, a great deal: the overall climate response to increasingExpand
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Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C
More than 100 countries have adopted a global warming limit of 2 °C or below (relative to pre-industrial levels) as a guiding principle for mitigation efforts to reduce climate change risks, impactsExpand
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Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne
Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures. But the eventual equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level ofExpand
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Monte Carlo SSA: Detecting irregular oscillations in the Presence of Colored Noise
Singular systems (or singular spectrum) analysis (SSA) was originally proposed for noise reduction in the analysis of experimental data and is now becoming widely used to identify intermittent orExpand
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Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases
The range of possibilities for future climate evolution needs to be taken into account when planning climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This requires ensembles of multi-decadalExpand
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Quantifying Uncertainties in Climate System Properties with the Use of Recent Climate Observations
We derive joint probability density distributions for three key uncertain properties of the climate system, using an optimal fingerprinting approach to compare simulations of an intermediateExpand
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Climate Change 2014 : Synthesis Report
Core Writing Team Rajendra K. Pachauri (Chair), Myles R. Allen (United Kingdom), Vicente R. Barros (Argentina), John Broome (United Kingdom), Wolfgang Cramer (Germany/France), Renate ChristExpand
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Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003
The summer of 2003 was probably the hottest in Europe since at latest ad 1500, and unusually large numbers of heat-related deaths were reported in France, Germany and Italy. It is an ill-posedExpand
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Constraining the Ratio of Global Warming to Cumulative CO2 Emissions Using CMIP5 Simulations
AbstractThe ratio of warming to cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide has been shown to be approximately independent of time and emissions scenarios and directly relates emissions to temperature. ItExpand
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Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C
The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 1.5 °C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 0.9 °C from the mid-nineteenth century to the presentExpand
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