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The behavior of three insulin action and glucose kinetics models was assessed for an insulin therapy regime in the presence of patient variability. For this purpose, postprandial glucose in patients with type 1 diabetes was predicted by considering intra- and inter-patient variability using modal interval analysis. Equations to achieve optimal prediction(More)
In this paper, the problem of tackling uncertainty in the prediction of postprandial blood glucose is analyzed. Two simulation approaches, Monte Carlo and interval models, are studied and compared. Interval simulation is carried out using modal interval analysis. Simulation of a glucoregulatory model with uncertainty in insulin sensitivities, glucose(More)
Considering the difficulty in selecting correct insulin doses and the problem of hyper- and hypoglycemia episodes in type 1 diabetes, dosage-aid systems are very useful for these patients. A model-based approach to this problem must unavoidably consider uncertainty sources such as large intra-patient variability and food intake. In the present study,(More)
OBJECTIVE The objective of this article was to develop a methodology to quantify the risk of suffering different grades of hypo- and hyperglycemia episodes in the postprandial state. METHODS Interval predictions of patient postprandial glucose were performed during a 5-hour period after a meal for a set of 3315 scenarios. Uncertainty in the patient's(More)
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