Luís Aguiar-Conraria

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The literature on the rational political business cycle suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic and fiscal conditions before elections to increase their chance of gaining reelection. Most tests of this theory look for evidence of pre-election distortions in fiscal policy. We propose a new test that, instead, explores the implied two-way(More)
Economists are already familiar with the Discrete Wavelet Transform. However, a body of work using the Continuous Wavelet Transform has also been growing. We provide a self-contained summary on continuous wavelet tools, such as the Continuous Wavelet Transform, the Cross-Wavelet, the Wavelet Coherency and the Phase-Di¤erence. Furthermore, we generalize the(More)
JEL classification: C32 C49 E43 E44 Keywords: Macro-finance Yield curve Kalman filter Continuous wavelet transform Wavelet coherency Phase-difference a b s t r a c t We assess the relation between the yield curve and the macroeconomy in the U.S. between 1961 and 2011. We add to the standard parametric macro-finance models, as we uncover evidence(More)
This paper investigates the properties of distortions that manifest themselves as wedges in the equilibrium conditions of the neoclassical growth model across a sample of OECD countries for the 1970-2011 period. The quantitative relevance of each wedge and its robustness in generating fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates is assessed. The efficiency(More)
30 The Planet Earth System, a chalenge to mathematicians by José Francisco Rodrigues 31 Four themes with potencial examples of modules for a virtual exhibition on the " Mathematics of Planet Earth " by Christiane Rousseau We will support the mission of CIM to develop and promote mathematics in Portugal and to strengthen international outreach. We will(More)
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