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- Lora Billings, Ira B Schwartz, Leah B Shaw, Marie McCrary, Donald S Burke, Derek A T Cummings
- Journal of theoretical biology
- 2007

This paper investigates the complex dynamics induced by antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) in multiserotype disease models. ADE is the increase in viral growth rate in the presence of immunity due to a previous infection of a different serotype. The increased viral growth rate is thought to increase the infectivity of the secondary infectious class. In… (More)

- Ira B Schwartz, Leah B Shaw, Derek A T Cummings, Lora Billings, Marie McCrary, Donald S Burke
- Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and…
- 2005

Multistrain diseases are diseases that consist of several strains, or serotypes. The serotypes may interact by antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), in which infection with a single serotype is asymptomatic, but infection with a second serotype leads to serious illness accompanied by greater infectivity. It has been observed from serotype data of dengue… (More)

We derive two models of viral epidemiology on connected networks and compare results to simulations. The differential equation model easily predicts the expected long term behavior by defining a boundary between survival and extinction regions. The discrete Markov model captures the short term behavior dependent on initial conditions, providing extinction… (More)

- Derek A T Cummings, Ira B Schwartz, Lora Billings, Leah B Shaw, Donald S Burke
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences…
- 2005

Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), a phenomenon in which viral replication is increased rather than decreased by immune sera, has been observed in vitro for a large number of viruses of public health importance, including flaviviruses, coronaviruses, and retroviruses. The most striking in vivo example of ADE in humans is dengue hemorrhagic fever, a… (More)

This article is concerned with the dynamics of noninvertible transformations of the plane. Three examples are explored and possibly a new bifurcation, or \eruption", is described. A fundamental role is played by the interactions of xed points and singular curves. Other critical elements in the phase space include periodic points and an invariant line. The… (More)

We consider the problem of stochastic prediction and control in a time-dependent stochastic environment, such as the ocean, where escape from an almost invariant region occurs due to random fluctuations. We determine high-probability control-actuation sets by computing regions of uncertainty, almost invariant sets, and Lagrangian coherent structures. The… (More)

Results are reported concerning the transition to chaos in random dynamical systems. In particular, situations are considered where a periodic attractor coexists with a nonattracting chaotic saddle, which can be expected in any periodic window of a nonlinear dynamical system. Under noise, the asymptotic attractor of the system can become chaotic, as… (More)

Multistrain diseases have multiple distinct coexisting serotypes (strains). For some diseases, such as dengue fever, the serotypes interact by antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), in which infection with a single serotype is asymptomatic, but contact with a second serotype leads to higher viral load and greater infectivity. We present and analyze a dynamic… (More)

We consider the effects of noise on a model of epidemic outbreaks, where the outbreaks appear randomly. Using a constructive transition approach that predicts large outbreaks prior to their occurrence, we derive an adaptive control scheme that prevents large outbreaks from occurring. The theory is applicable to a wide range of stochastic processes with… (More)

A general way to classify stochastic chaos is presented and applied to population dynamics models. A stochastic dynamical theory is used to develop an algorithmic tool to measure the transport across basin boundaries and predict the most probable regions of transport created by noise. The results of this tool are illustrated on a model of virus spread in a… (More)