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We develop a Bayesian estimation procedure for spatial models of roll call voting. We show how a Bayesian approach to roll call analysis overcomes shortcomings and idiosyncracies of NOMINATE (some of which are not widely recognized). Our Bayesian approach (a) applies to any legislative setting, irrespective of size, legislative extremism, or the number of(More)
investigate a reputation-building model of political behavior. We argue that differences in the behavior of governors who face a binding term limit and those who are able to run again provides a source of variation in discount rates that can be used to test a political agency model. We find evidence that taxes, spending, and other policy instruments respond(More)
  • D R E W G E L M A N A N D G A R Y K I N G, Gelman, +10 authors D Stephen
  • 2004
As most political scientists know, the outcome of the American presidential election can be predicted within a few percentage points (in the popular vote), based on information available months before the election. Thus, the general campaign for president seems irrelevant to the outcome (except in very close elections), despite all the media coverage of(More)
The best current defense of democracy is the theory of retrospective voting. Citizens may not know much about the issues, the argument goes, but they can tell good from bad outcomes, and that allows them to remove incompetent or corrupt incumbents. Moreover, knowing that the voters use that rule, every government will have every incentive to do what they(More)
1 You may be interested in our Anchoring Vignettes web site, which, as a companion to this paper, gives a list of frequently asked questions, example vignettes, and other materials (see Abstract We offer a new approach to writing survey questions and a new statistical model that together at least partially ameliorate two long-standing problems in survey(More)
Randomized natural experiments provide social scientists with rare opportunities to draw credible causal inferences in real-world settings. We capitalize on such a unique experiment to examine how the name order of candidates on ballots affects election outcomes. Since 1975, California has randomized the ballot order for statewide offices with a complex(More)
We consider accountability in repeated elections with two long-lived parties that have distinct policy preferences and different levels of valence. In each period the government faces a privately observed feasibility constraint and selects a publicly observed policy vector. While pure strategy equilib-ria do not exhibit tight control on government policy(More)
We thank Tim Colton and Mike T omz for participating in several of our meetings during the early stages of this project; Abstract We propose a remedy to the substantial discrepancy between the way political scientists analyze data with missing values and the recommendations of the statistics community. With a few notable exceptions, statisticians and(More)