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[1] Ocean predictability skill is investigated using a Gulf of Mexico nowcast/forecast model. Power law scaling is found in the mean square error of displacement between drifting buoy and model trajectories (both at 50 m depth). The probability density function of the model valid prediction period (VPP) is asymmetric with a long and broad tail on the higher(More)
This paper describes the use of numerical models to infer the path of a floating human body in the Ligurian Sea (north-west Mediterranean) during the month of January 2001. The prevailing oceanic currents were obtained from a state-of-the-art real-time nowcast/forecast ocean circulation model, while the sea state was inferred from a numerical model of the(More)
A two-dimensional coupled ice-ocean model has been formulated and applied to the wintertime Bering Sea marginal ice zone. The oceanic component is a multilevel model that incorporates second-moment closure for turbulent mixing in the water column. The ice cover is modeled as a viscous-plastic continuum. Melting at the ice-ocean interface is computed using(More)
A two-dimensional, multilevel model for simulating changes in the atmospheric boundary layer across a marginal ice zone is described and applied to office , on-ice, and along-ice edge wind conditions. The model incorporates a second-moment closure for parameterizing the intensification and suppression of turbulent mixing in the boundary layer due to(More)
Analysis of model predictability needs full knowledge of prediction error statistics. Due to high structural complexity and high dimensionality of the error phase space, establishment of such statistics is difficult. Usually the Gaussian distribution is assumed for the error statistics for simplicity. However, it might not be true for ocean models. A new(More)
  • Peter C Chu, O Melnichenko, +9 authors Y A Poberenzhny
  • 2009
Great advantages of spectral representation in ocean observation and modeling are demonstrated in this paper. For observation, two-scalar (toroidal and poloidal) spectral representation is used to reconstruct three-dimensional ocean flow from noisy data in an open domain. This approach includes: (a) a boundary extension method to determine normal and(More)