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Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in(More)
The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Continuing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that climate extremes such as droughts or storms can lead to a decrease in regional ecosystem carbon stocks and(More)
The Open University's repository of research publications and other research outputs The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model. The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based(More)
[1] Simulations of potential vegetation distribution, natural fire frequency, carbon pools, and fluxes are presented for two DGVMs (Dynamic Global Vegetation Models) from the second phase of the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project. Results link vegetation dynamics to biogeochemical cycling for the conterminous United States. Two climate(More)
Aim Tropical forests store 25% of global carbon and harbour 96% of the world's tree species, but it is not clear whether this high biodiversity matters for carbon storage. Few studies have teased apart the relative importance of forest attributes and environmental drivers for ecosystem functioning, and no such study exists for the tropics. Methods We relate(More)
Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the(More)
Atmospheric monitoring of high northern latitudes (above 40°N) has shown an enhanced seasonal cycle of carbon dioxide (CO2) since the 1960s, but the underlying mechanisms are not yet fully understood. The much stronger increase in high latitudes relative to low ones suggests that northern ecosystems are experiencing large changes in vegetation and carbon(More)
We analyse how climate change may alter risks posed by droughts to carbon fluxes in European ecosystems. The approach follows a recently proposed framework for risk analysis based on probability theory. In this approach , risk is quantified as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. The probability of a drought hazard is calculated(More)
Africa is a continent dominated by fire. Vegetation fires, occurring naturally or human-ignited as a land management practice, have a long history in the continent's savannah ecosystems. These fires contribute substantially to the total carbon emissions (e.g. as CO 2 , CO, CH 4 , Volatile Organic Compounds, Black Carbon) over large parts of the 5 continent.(More)
(2015) Biodiversity research: data without theory—theory without data. Policy support and biodiversity assessment Meet two famous researchers from the early days of biodiversity research: Charles Darwin and Alexander von Humboldt. Darwin developed a powerful theory, using a limited amount of data by modern standards. Humboldt, in contrast, compiled a "(More)