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Successfully managing risks to achieve wild polioviruses (WPVs) eradication and address the complexities of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation to stop all cases of paralytic poliomyelitis depends strongly on our collective understanding of poliovirus immunity and transmission. With increased shifting from OPV to inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV),(More)
The global polio eradication initiative (GPEI), which started in 1988, represents the single largest, internationally coordinated public health project to date. Completion remains within reach, with type 2 wild polioviruses apparently eradicated since 1999 and fewer than 2000 annual paralytic poliomyelitis cases of wild types 1 and 3 reported since then.(More)
With national and global health policymakers facing numerous complex decisions related to achieving and maintaining polio eradication, we expanded our previously developed dynamic poliovirus transmission model using information from an expert literature review process and including additional immunity states and the evolution of oral poliovirus vaccine(More)
After the global eradication of wild polioviruses, the risk of paralytic poliomyelitis from polioviruses will still exist and require active management. Possible reintroductions of poliovirus that can spread rapidly in unprotected populations present challenges to policymakers. For example, at least one outbreak will likely occur due to circulation of a(More)
In the past decade, the use of probabilistic risk analysis techniques to quantitatively address variability and uncertainty in risks increased in popularity as recommended by the 1994 National Research Council that wrote Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment. Under the 1996 Food Quality Protection Act, for example, the U.S. EPA supported the development(More)
CONTEXT Motor vehicle crashes continue to cause significant mortality and morbidity in the United States. Installation of air bags in new passenger vehicles is a major initiative in the field of injury prevention. OBJECTIVE To assess the net health consequences and cost-effectiveness of driver's side and front passenger air bags from a societal(More)
Experts agree that value of information (VOI) analyses provide useful insights in risk management decisions. However, applications in environmental health risk management (EHRM) remain largely demonstrative thus far because of the complexity in modeling and solving VOI problems. Based on this comprehensive review of all VOI applications published in the(More)
CONTEXT Children's exposure to violence in the media remains a source of public health concern; however, violence in video games rated T (for "Teen") by the Entertainment Software Rating Board (ESRB) has not been quantified. OBJECTIVE To quantify and characterize the depiction of violence and blood in T-rated video games. According to the ESRB, T-rated(More)
With the intensifying global efforts to eradicate wild polioviruses, policymakers face complex decisions related to achieving eradication and managing posteradication risks. These decisions and the expanding use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) trigger renewed interest in poliovirus immunity, particularly the role of mucosal immunity in the(More)
The crashes of four hijacked commercial planes on September 11, 2001, and the repeated televised images of the consequent collapse of the World Trade Center and one side of the Pentagon will inevitably change people's perceptions of the mortality risks to people on the ground from crashing airplanes. Goldstein and colleagues were the first to quantify the(More)