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Forecasting Decisions in Conflict Situations: A Comparison of Game Theory, Role-playing, and Unaided Judgement
- Kesten C. Green
- 1 July 2002
Effects of Corporate Social Responsibility and Irresponsibility Policies
Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be Conservative
This paper proposes a unifying theory of forecasting in the form of a Golden Rule of Forecasting. The Golden Rule is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative…
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared
It is considered that Delphi is greatly under-utilized, and the reasoning provided as an output of the Delphi process is likely to be reassuring to forecast users who are uncomfortable with the “black box” nature of prediction markets.
Forecasting methods and principles: Evidence-based checklists
Findings from a review of forecasting experiments were used to identify methods and principles that lead to accurate forecasts and checklists to help forecasters and their clients undertake and commission studies that adhere to principles and use valid methods were developed.
Competitor-Oriented Objectives: Myth of Market Share
Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are commonly used by firms. A 1996 review of the evidence, summarized in this paper, found that…
Structured Analogies for Forecasting
This work compared structured analogies with unaided judgments for predicting the decisions made in eight conflict situations and found that among experts who were independently able to think of two or more analogies and who had direct experience with their closest analogy, 60% of forecasts were accurate.
Game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts: further evidence
- Kesten C. Green
- 1 July 2005
The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts
It is concluded that expert judgment should not be used for predicting decisions that people will make in conflicts because decision makers ask experts for their opinions and are likely to overlook other, more useful, approaches.
Evidence on the Effects of Mandatory Disclaimers in Advertising
The authors find no evidence that consumers benefit from government-mandated disclaimers in advertising. Experiments and common experience show that admonishments to change or avoid behaviors often…