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Forecasting Decisions in Conflict Situations: A Comparison of Game Theory, Role-playing, and Unaided Judgement
- Kesten C. Green
- Psychology
- 1 July 2002
Effects of Corporate Social Responsibility and Irresponsibility Policies
- J. Armstrong, Kesten C. Green
- Business, Economics
- 27 November 2012
Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be Conservative
- J. Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, A. Graefe
- Business
- 1 March 2015
This paper proposes a unifying theory of forecasting in the form of a Golden Rule of Forecasting. The Golden Rule is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative…
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared
- Kesten C. Green, J. Armstrong, A. Graefe
- Economics
- 31 August 2007
TLDR
Forecasting methods and principles: Evidence-based checklists
- J. Armstrong, Kesten C. Green
- Business
- 6 January 2018
TLDR
Competitor-Oriented Objectives: Myth of Market Share
- J. Armstrong, Kesten C. Green
- Business
- 25 May 2007
Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are commonly used by firms. A 1996 review of the evidence, summarized in this paper, found that…
Structured Analogies for Forecasting
- Kesten C. Green, J. Armstrong
- Psychology
- 1 July 2007
TLDR
Game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts: further evidence
- Kesten C. Green
- Economics
- 1 July 2005
The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts
- Kesten C. Green, J. Armstrong
- Environmental ScienceInterfaces
- 7 December 2004
TLDR
Evidence on the Effects of Mandatory Disclaimers in Advertising
- Kesten C. Green, J. Armstrong
- Law
- 30 March 2012
The authors find no evidence that consumers benefit from government-mandated disclaimers in advertising. Experiments and common experience show that admonishments to change or avoid behaviors often…
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