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- Kesten C. Green
- 2004
When people forecast, they often use analogies but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure that involves asking experts to list as many analogies as they can, rate how… (More)
- Kesten C. Green
- 2003
When people in conflicts can accurately forecast how others will respond, they should be able to make better decisions. Contrary to expectations, earlier research found game theorists’ forecasts were… (More)
- Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong
- Interfaces
- 2007
In important conflicts, people typically rely on experts’ judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries will make. We compared the accuracy of 106 expert and 169 novice forecasts for eight real… (More)
- J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, Willie Soon
- Interfaces
- 2008
Calls to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act are based on forecasts of substantial long-term declines in their population. Nine government reports… (More)
- Kesten C. Green
- 2014
To forecast decisions in conflict situations, experts are often advised to figuratively stand in the other person’s shoes. We refer to this as “role thinking” because, in practice, the advice is to… (More)
- Kesten C. Green
- 2014
Policymakers need to know whether prediction is possible and if so whether any proposed forecasting method will provide forecasts that are substantively more accurate than those from the relevant… (More)
- Kesten C. Green
- 2013
This article discusses two methods of dealing with demand variability. First a causal method based on multiple regression and artificial neural networks have been used. The ANN is trained for… (More)
Purpose: To test whether a structured application of persuasion principles might help improve advertising decisions. Evidence-based principles are currently used to improve decisions in other complex… (More)
Purpose: This paper aims to respond to issues posed in the four commentaries on Armstrong, Dy, Green and Graefe (this issue) regarding the immediate usefulness of that paper's test of advertisements'… (More)
- Kesten C. Green, Willie Soon, U. S. A. J Scott Armstrong
- 2013
Following Green, Armstrong and Soon’s (IJF 2009) (GAS) naïve extrapolation, Fildes and Kourentzes (IJF 2011) (F&K) found that each of six more-sophisticated, but inexpensive, extrapolation models… (More)