Kenneth Carling

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Dynamic Treatment Assignment – The Consequences for Evaluations Using Observational Data This paper discusses the evaluation problem using observational data when the timing of treatment is an outcome of a stochastic process. We show that the duration framework in discrete time provides a fertile ground for effect evaluations. We suggest easy-to-use(More)
The Internal Ratings Based (IRB) approach for capital determination is one of the cornerstones in the proposed revision of the Basel Committee rules for bank regulation. We evaluate the IRB approach using historical business loan portfolio data from a major Swedish bank for the period 1994 to 2000. First, we estimate a duration model that takes into account(More)
Despite a surge in the research efforts put into modelling credit risk during the past decade, few studies have incorporated the impact that macroeconomic conditions have on business defaults. In this paper, we estimate a duration model to explain the survival time to default for counterparts in the business loan portfolio of a major Swedish bank over the(More)
Carling et al (1996) analyze a large data set of unemployed workers in order to examine, inter alia, the effect of unemployment benefits on the escape rate to employment. In this paper we take a closer look at the 20 per cent of workers who were drop-outs and check the empirical justification for modeling attrition as independent right censoring in the(More)
A drawback of available portfolio credit risk models is that they fail to allow for default risk dependency across loans other than through common risk factors. Thereby, these models ignore that close ties can exist between companies due to legal, financial and business relations. In this paper, we integrate the insights from theoretical models of default(More)
In this paper we discuss how a regression model, with a non-continuous response variable, that allows for dependency between observations should be estimated when observations are clustered and there are repeated measurements on the subjects. The cluster sizes are assumed to be large. We …nd that the conventional estimation technique suggested by the(More)
Does the Church Tower Principle, i.e. geographical proximity between borrowing firm and lending bank, matter in credit risk management? If so, the bank might expose itself to a greater risk by lending to distant firms and should therefore respond by rationing them harder. In this paper we incorporate the Church Tower Principle in a simple theoretical model(More)
Self-employment grants and employment subsidies are active labor market programs that aim at helping unemployed workers to escape unemployment by becoming self-employed or being hired at an initially reduced cost for the employer. In Sweden in the 1990’s the participation rate in the self-employment program increased from virtually none to almost same as in(More)
Interfaces are brought into focus by many materials phenomena, e.g., contacting, materials strength, and wetting. The class of interfaces includes ultra-high-vacuum surfaces, which provide a meeting place for numerous accurate experimental techniques and advanced theory. Such meetings stimulate detailed comparisons on the quantum level between experiment(More)
This paper evaluates a measure targeted at unemployed individuals aged 20-24. The main purpose of the measure is to prevent long-term unemployment by guaranteeing an assignment to some labor market program within 100 days of unemployment. Municipalities voluntarily agree to offer the guarantee. To identify the effect of the measure, we use three conditions:(More)