Kay A. Armstrong

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We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index” for forecasting U.S. presidential elections. The bioindex method counts the number of variables for which a candidate rates favourably, and the forecast is that the candidate with the highest score would win the popular vote. The bio-index relies on different information and includes more variables(More)
BACKGROUND A better understanding of men's attitudes, norms and behaviors regarding women's use of hormonal contraception is needed. STUDY DESIGN We conducted contraceptive life-history interviews with 41 ethnically diverse males ages 18-25 years which detailed up to six heterosexual relationships, focusing on knowledge, attitudes, norms and behaviors(More)
The objective of this project was to develop a simpler, more understandable, and accurate patient package insert (PPI) for inclusion in all packs of oral contraceptives (OCs). The project involved field-testing, using focus groups and semistructured cognitive interviews with family planning patients, a self-administered survey of clinic staff, and written(More)
This article proposes a unifying theory, or Golden Rule, of forecasting. The Golden Rule of Forecasting is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative knowledge about the present and the past. To be conservative, forecasters must seek out and use all knowledge relevant to the problem, including knowledge of methods validated(More)
This article introduces the Special Issue on simple versus complex methods in forecasting. Simplicity in forecasting requires that (1) method, (2) representation of cumulative knowledge, (3) relationships in models, and (4) relationships among models, forecasts, and decisions are all sufficiently uncomplicated as to be easily understood by decision-makers.(More)
PURPOSE The goal was to encourage earlier use of family planning services and effective birth control for teens. METHOD In three federally-funded family planning clinics, the SMART START service model was offered to non-pregnant teens under 18. Teens making their first family planning visit to the clinics for family planning services had the option to(More)
CONTEXT Advance provision of emergency contraception increases the likelihood of its use, yet little is known about the factors that influence successful implementation of an advance provision policy in publicly funded family planning clinics. METHODS Data on knowledge of, attitudes toward and use of emergency contraception were collected from 211(More)
CONTEXT Little is known about how written family planning clinic policy regarding emergency contraception, as well as personal characteristics, behaviors and attitudes, may influence a woman to use emergency contraception. METHODS Between June 2001 and July 2002, women attending publicly funded family planning clinics in Pennsylvania were enrolled in an(More)
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