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An increasing number of recent studies involve the fitting of mechanistic models to ecological time-series. In some cases, it is necessary for these models to be discrete-time approximations of continuous-time processes. We test the validity of discretization in the case of measles, where time-series models have recently been developed to estimate(More)
Foodborne disease is a major public health problem worldwide. To examine changes in foodborne illness in Australia, we estimated the incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths attributed to contaminated food circa 2010 and recalculated estimates from circa 2000. Approximately 25% of gastroenteritis cases were caused by contaminated food; to account for(More)
The seasonal patterns of human influenza in temperate regions have been well documented; however, much less attention has been paid to patterns of infection in the tropical and subtropical areas of east and southeast Asia. During the period 1997-2006, this region experienced several outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) in hosts including(More)
We assess the effects of strain heterology (strains that are immunologically similar but not identical) on equine influenza in a vaccinated population. Using data relating to individual animals, for both homologous and heterologous vaccinees, we estimate distributions for the latent and infectious periods, quantify the risk of becoming infected in terms of(More)
This paper demonstrates that a simple stochastic model can capture the features of an epidemic of equine influenza in unvaccinated horses. When the model is modified to consider vaccinated horses, we find that vaccination dramatically reduces the incidence and size of epidemics. Although occasional larger outbreaks can still occur, these are exceptional. We(More)
BACKGROUND Isolation of multiple bacterial species is common in foals with Rhodococcus equi pneumonia. HYPOTHESIS There is no association between isolation of other microorganisms and outcome. ANIMALS 155 foals with pneumonia caused by R. equi. METHODS Case records of foals diagnosed with R. equi pneumonia based on culture of the respiratory tract(More)
Duration of viral shedding following infection is an important determinant of disease transmission, informing both control policies and disease modelling. We undertook a systematic literature review of the duration of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus shedding to examine the effects of age, severity of illness and receipt of antiviral treatment. Studies were(More)
Current estimates of antiviral effectiveness for influenza are based on the existing strains of the virus. Should a pandemic strain emerge, strain-specific estimates will be required as early as possible to ensure that antiviral stockpiles are used optimally and to compare the benefits of using antivirals as prophylaxis or to treat cases. We present a(More)
BACKGROUND When deciding whether to close schools during an influenza pandemic, authorities must weigh the likely benefits against the expected social disruption. Although schools have been closed to slow the spread of influenza, there is limited evidence as to the impact on transmission of disease. METHODS To assess the benefits of closing schools for(More)
BACKGROUND Recent trends to earlier access to anti-retroviral treatment underline the importance of accurate HIV diagnosis. The WHO HIV testing strategy recommends the use of two or three rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) combined in an algorithm and assume a population is serologically stable over time. Yet RDTs are prone to cross reactivity which can lead to(More)