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The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target''Quarterly Journal of Economics
The course to be followed by a motorist having a preselected destination is indicated by a plurality of markers set in the center of the path to be followed by the motorist, each set of markersExpand
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Foundations of International Macroeconomics
Foundations of International Macroeconomics is an innovative text that offers the first integrative modern treatment of the core issues in open economy macroeconomics and finance. With its clear andExpand
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Exchange rate models of the seventies. Do they fit out of sample
Abstract This study compares the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of various structural and time series exchange rate models. We find that a random walk model performs as well as any estimatedExpand
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The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle
FIRST ARTICULATED by scholars of the ISalamanca school in sixteenth century Spain,1 purchasing power parity (PPP) is the disarmingly simple empirical proposition that, once converted to a commonExpand
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This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts haveExpand
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Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux
We develop an analytically tractable two-country model that marries a full account of global macroeconomic dynamics to a supply framework based on monopolistic competition and sticky nominal prices.Expand
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Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles
Prior to elections, governments (at all levels) frequently undertake a consumption binge. Taxes are cut, transfers are raised, and government spending is distorted towards highly visible items. TheExpand
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The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?
The central claim in this paper is that by explicitly introducing costs of international trade (narrowly, transport costs, but more broadly, tariffs, nontariff barriers, and other trade costs), oneExpand
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Growth in a Time of Debt
We study economic growth and inflation at different levels of government and external debt. Our analysis is based on new data on forty-four countries spanning about two hundred years. The datasetExpand
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Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development
The vast empirical exchange rate literature finds the effect of exchange rate volatility on real activity to be small or insignificant. In contrast, this paper offers empirical evidence that realExpand
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