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This study presents developed algorithm for assessment and updating estimates of parameters in the mathematical models of non-stationary processes (for instance, system ageing model, dynamic system models and so on) with respect of prior information and new obtained observations. Proposed algorithm for updating estimates of random parameters is based on(More)
This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event(More)
The paper presents reliability and risk analysis of the RBMK-1500 reactor accident localization system (ALS) (confinement), which prevents radioactive releases to the environment. Reliability of the system was estimated and compared by two methods: the conventional fault tree method and an innovative dynamic reliability model, based on stochastic(More)
Keywords: Electrical power system Dynamic stability Bayesian approach Non-stationary process a b s t r a c t In this article we present a short-term (short-transient) dynamic stability assessment methodology for generators of a power system at characteristic/relevant operation modes. The suggested methodology combines a classical simulation methodology and(More)
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