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Generality of the Final Size Formula for an Epidemic of a Newly Invading Infectious Disease
It is concluded that whenever a new respiratory pathogen emerges, an estimate of the expected magnitude of the epidemic can be made as soon the basic reproduction number ℝ0 can be approximated, and this estimate is likely to be improved only by more accurate estimates of �”0, not by knowledge of any other epidemiological details. Expand
Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
  • Junling Ma
  • Mathematics, Medicine
  • Infectious Disease Modelling
  • 8 January 2020
The estimation of the growth rate from the epidemic curve can be a challenge, because of its decays with time, and the estimation is subject to over-fitting due to the limited number of data points available. Expand
Cholera Epidemic in Haiti, 2010: Using a Transmission Model to Explain Spatial Spread of Disease and Identify Optimal Control Interventions
A model simulating between-region disease transmission according to population and distance closely reproduces reported disease patterns and is a tool that planners, policymakers, and medical personnel seeking to manage the epidemic could use immediately. Expand
Effective degree network disease models
The threshold parameter for the SIS model is shown to be larger than that derived from percolation theory for a model with the same disease and network parameters, and consequently a disease may be able to invade with lower transmission than predicted by percolated theory. Expand
Inferring the causes of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England and Wales
A simple epidemic model is proposed, which incorporates three factors that might contribute to the generation of multiple waves of incidence: schools opening and closing, temperature changes during the outbreak, and changes in human behaviour in response to the outbreak. Expand
It is demonstrated that typical segmentation can occur after total nerve blockade and phase amplitude modulation of the slow waves points to an underlying system of coupled nonlinear oscillators originating in ICC. Expand
Epidemic threshold conditions for seasonally forced seir models.
  • Junling Ma, Zhien Ma
  • Mathematics, Medicine
  • Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE
  • 1 November 2005
In this paper we derive threshold conditions for eradication of diseases that can be described by seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infectious- recovered (SEIR) models or their variants. ForExpand
Estimating Initial Epidemic Growth Rates
This work compares the performance of four commonly used phenomenological models (exponential, Richards, logistic, and delayed logistic) in estimating initial epidemic growth rates by maximum likelihood, by fitting them to simulated epidemics with known parameters. Expand
Age-specific mortality risk from pandemic influenza.
The mortality pattern during the 1957 pandemic indicates that antigenic imprinting plays an important role in determining age-specific influenza virulence and that both shift years and major drift years contribute significantly to antigenic stamps. Expand
Mechanistic modelling of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic
Influenza pandemics through history have shown very different patterns of incidence, morbidity and mortality. In particular, pandemics in different times and places have shown anywhere from one toExpand