Julio Michael Stern

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Much forensic inference based upon DNA evidence is made assuming Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) for the genetic loci being used. Several statistical tests to detect and measure deviation from HWE have been devised, and their limitations become more obvious when testing for deviation within multiallelic DNA loci. The most popular methods-Chi-square and(More)
A Bayesian measure of evidence for precise hypotheses is presented. The intention is to give a Bayesian alternative to significance tests or, equivalently, to p-values. In fact, a set is defined in the parameter space and the posterior probability, its credibility, is evaluated. This set is the " Highest Posterior Density Region " that is " tangent " to the(More)
The full Bayesian signiÿcance test (FBST) for precise hypotheses is presented, with some illustrative applications. In the FBST we compute the evidence against the precise hypothesis. We discuss some of the theoretical properties of the FBST, and provide an invariant formulation for coordinate transformations, provided a reference density has been(More)
We review the definition of the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST), and summarize its main statistical and epistemological characteristics. We review also the Abstract Belief Calculus (ABC) of Derwiche and Ginsberg, and use it to analyze the FBST's value of evidence. This analysis helps us understand the FBST properties, specially its consistency with(More)
In this paper epistemological, ontological and sociological questions concerning the statistical significance of sharp hypotheses in scientific research are investigated within the framework provided by Cognitive Constructivism and the FBST (Full Bayesian Significance Test). The constructivist framework is contrasted with the traditional epistemological(More)
The Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) for precise hypotheses is applied to a Multivariate Normal Structure (MNS) model. In the FBST we compute the evidence against the precise hypothesis. This evidence is the probability of the Highest Relative Surprise Set (HRSS) tangent to the sub-manifold (of the parameter space) that defines the null hypothesis.(More)
In this paper, the relationship between the e-value of a complex hypothesis, H , and those of its constituent elementary hypotheses, H j , j = 1...k, is analyzed, in the independent setup. The e-value of a hypothesis H , ev(H), is a Bayesian epistemic, credibility or truth value defined under the Full Bayesian Significance Testing (FBST) mathematical(More)