Systems is a complete and accessible account of the theoretical foundations and computational methods that underlie plausible reasoning under uncertainty.
This book seeks to integrate research on cause and effect inference from cog-nitive science, econometrics, epidemiology, philosophy, and statistics+ It puts forward the work of its author, his collaborators, and others over the past two decades as a new account of cause and effect inference that can aid practical researchers in many fields, including… (More)
We show in this paper that the AGM postulates are too week to ensure the rational preservation of conditional beliefs during belief revision, thus permitting improper responses to sequences of observations. We remedy this weakness by proposing four additional postulates, which are sound relative to a qualitative version of probabilistic conditioning.… (More)
The primary aim of this paper is to show how graphical models can be used as a mathematical language for integrating statistical and subject-matter information. In particular, the paper develops a principled, nonparametric framework for causal inference, in which diagrams are queried to determine if the assumptions available are suucient for identifying… (More)
Belief networks are directed acyclic graphs in which the nodes represent propositions (or variables), the arcs signify direct dependencies between the linked propositions, and the strengths of these dependencies are quantified by conditional probabilities. A network of this sort can be used to represent the generic knowledge of a domain expert, and it turns… (More)
We propose a new definition of actual causes, using structural equations to model counterfactuals. We show that the definition yields a plausible and elegant account of causation that handles well examples which have caused problems for other definitions and resolves major difficulties in the traditional account.