Juan Vargas

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Channel Islands Golden Eagle Translocation Project has been successful over the past five years due to the efforts of many people from several different agencies and groups many of whom have made the preservation and recovery of the island fox a priority in their personal and professional lives. These people deserve our thanks and(More)
– Optimal operation of a country's air transport infrastructure plays a major role in the economic development of nations. Due to the increasing use of air transportation in today's world, flights' boarding times have become a concern for both airlines and airports, thus the importance of knowing beforehand how changes in flights demand parameters and(More)
We develop a model where some politicians have an edge in undertaking a task and this gives them electoral advantage, creating an incentive to underperform in the task. We test the empirical implications in the context of fighting against insurgents, using Colombian data. The main prediction is that large defeats for the insurgents reduce the probability(More)
What is the relationship between the type of training combatants receive upon recruitment into an armed group and their propensity to abuse civilians in civil war? Does military training or political training prevent or exacerbate the victimization of civilians by armed non-state actors? While the literature on civilian victimization has expanded rapidly,(More)
We propose a model in which an autocrat, who rules over an ethnically divided society, selects the tax rate over domestic production and the nation's natural resources to maximize his rents under the threat of a regime-switching revolution. We show that a weak ruler may let the country plunge in civil war to increase his personal rents. Indeed inter-group(More)
We thank Dario Romero for excellent research assistance and Daron Acemoglu, Torberg Falch, María Teresa Ronderos and Bjarne Strøm for their comments and suggestions. We are grateful to seminar participants at Berkeley, Georgetown, Universidad de los Andes, Universidad del Rosario, the World Bank Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the(More)
The growing empirical literature on the analysis of civil war has recently included the study of conflict duration at the crosscountry level. This paper presents, for the first time, a within-country analysis of the determinants of violence duration. I focus on the experience of the Colombian armed conflict. While the conflict has been active for about five(More)
We study the relationship between some of the most important recent events of the Colombian armed conflict and the foreign perception of sovereign risk, as measured by the Credit Default Swap (CDS) of the Colombian bonds. Using a recent methodology we estimate the causal effect of conflict events widely publicized by the international media on the price of(More)