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In this paper, we show how temporal (i.e., time-series) Gaussian process regression models in machine learning can be reformulated as linear-Gaussian state space models, which can be solved exactly with classical Kalman filtering theory. The result is an efficient non-parametric learning algorithm, whose computational complexity grows linearly with respect(More)
Gaussian process-based machine learning is a powerful Bayesian paradigm for nonparametric nonlinear regression and classification. In this article, we discuss connections of Gaussian process regression with Kalman filtering and present methods for converting spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression problems into infinite-dimensional state-space models.(More)
Nonlinear Kalman filter and Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoother type recursive estimators for nonlinear discrete-time state space models with multivariate Student's t-distributed measurement noise are presented. The methods approximate the posterior state at each time step using the variational Bayes method. The nonlinearities in the dynamic and measurement models(More)
Gaussian processes (GP) are powerful tools for probabilistic modeling purposes. They can be used to define prior distributions over latent functions in hierarchical Bayesian models. The prior over functions is defined implicitly by the mean and covariance function, which determine the smoothness and variability of the function. The inference can then be(More)
Latent force models (LFMs) are flexible models that combine mechanistic modelling principles (i.e., physical models) with non-parametric data-driven components. Several key applications of LFMs need non-linearities, which results in analytically intractable inference. In this work we show how non-linear LFMs can be represented as non-linear white noise(More)
We consider joint estimation of state and time-varying noise covariance matrices in non-linear stochastic state space models. We propose a variational Bayes and Gaussian non-linear filtering based algorithm for efficient computation of the approximate filtering posterior distributions. The formulation allows the use of efficient Gaussian integration methods(More)
This paper is concerned with the use of Gaussian process regression based quadrature rules in the context of sigma-point-based nonlinear Kalman filtering and smoothing. We show how Gaussian process (i.e., Bayesian or Bayes-Hermite) quadratures can be used for numerical solving of the Gaussian integrals arising in the filters and smoothers. An interesting(More)
— In this note we shall present a new Gaussian approximation based framework for approximate optimal smoothing of non-linear stochastic state space models. The approximation framework can be used for efficiently solving non-linear fixed-interval, fixed-point and fixed-lag optimal smoothing problems. We shall also numerically compare accuracies of(More)