Joshua R. Goldstein

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Is the recent plateau in crude divorce rates due to compositional changes in the married population or to a fundamental change in the long-term trend of rising marital instability? I use refined measures of period divorce rates to show that the leveling of divorce rates appears to be real. Compositional factors do little to explain the end to the more than(More)
This paper offers an empirical and analytic foundation for regarding period life expectancy as a lagged indicator of the experience of real cohorts in populations experiencing steady improvement in mortality. We find that current period life expectancy in the industrialized world applies to cohorts born some 40-50 years ago. Lags track an average age at(More)
This paper presents national estimates of the population likely to identify with more than one race in the 2000 census as a result of a new federal policy allowing multiple racial identification. A large number of race-based public policies-including affirmative action and the redistricting provisions of the Voting Rights Act-may be affected by the shift of(More)
Some 20 years after reunification, the contrast between East and West Germany offers a natural experiment for studying the degree of persistence of Communist-era family patterns, the effects of economic change, and fertility postponement. After reunification, period fertility rates plummeted in the former East Germany to record low levels. Since the(More)
Mortality decline has historically been largely a result of reductions in the level of mortality at all ages. A number of leading researchers on ageing, however, suggest that the next revolution of longevity increase will be the result of slowing down the rate of ageing. In this paper, we show mathematically how varying the pace of senescence influences(More)
This open-access work is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 2.0 Germany, which permits use, reproduction & distribution in any medium for non-commercial purposes, provided the original author(s) and source are given credit. 1 Introduction 542 2 Incorporating the concern over the aging of members into(More)
I estimate the frequencies of interracial kin relations, an important indicator of the isolation of racial groups in the United States. I use two techniques to estimate the size and heterogeneity of extended families. First, I develop a simple model that takes account only of kinship network sizes and intermarriage levels by race. This model allows a crude(More)