#### Filter Results:

- Full text PDF available (47)

#### Publication Year

2003

2018

- This year (2)
- Last 5 years (23)
- Last 10 years (37)

#### Publication Type

#### Co-author

#### Journals and Conferences

Learn More

- Marcel van Oijen, Jonathan Rougier, Ron Smith
- Tree physiology
- 2005

Process-based forest models generally have many parameters, multiple outputs of interest and a small underlying empirical database. These characteristics hamper parameterization. Bayesian calibrationâ€¦ (More)

- Jonathan Rougier
- 2006

This paper describes an approach to computing probabilistic assessments of future climate, using a climate model. It clarifies the nature of probability in this context, and illustrates the kinds ofâ€¦ (More)

- Michael Goldstein, Jonathan Rougier
- SIAM J. Scientific Computing
- 2004

We outline a probabilistic framework for linking mathematical models to the physical systems that they represent, taking account of all sources of uncertainty including model and simulatorâ€¦ (More)

Credible climate predictions require a rational quantification of uncertainty, but full Bayesian calibration requires detailed estimates of prior probability distributions and covariances, which areâ€¦ (More)

- Jonathan Rougier, Serge Guillas, Astrid Maute, Arthur D. Richmond
- Technometrics
- 2009

The TIE-GCM simulator of the upper atmosphere has a number of features that are a challenge to standard approaches to emulation, such as a long run-time, multivariate output, periodicity, and strongâ€¦ (More)

- Francesca Pianosi, Keith J. Beven, +4 authors Thorsten Wagener
- Environmental Modelling and Software
- 2016

Sensitivity Analysis (SA) investigates how the variation in the output of a numerical model can be attributed to variations of its input factors. SA is increasingly being used in environmentalâ€¦ (More)

- Jonathan Rougier
- 2007

An emulator is a statistical model of a deterministic function, to be used where the function itself is too expensive to evaluate within-the-loop of an inferential calculation. Typically, emulatorsâ€¦ (More)

- Jonathan Rougier
- 2005

Predictions about future climate are typically based on an ensemble of evaluations of a climate model at different parameterisations. If we wish to describe our uncertainty about future climate inâ€¦ (More)

- Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Jonathan Rougier, Jonathan Riddell Bamber, Nana Schoen
- Environmetrics
- 2014

Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds theâ€¦ (More)

Chapter 2 focused entirely on aleatory uncertainty. This is the uncertainty that arises out of the randomness of the hazard itself, and also, possibly, out of the responses to the hazard outcome.â€¦ (More)