John P. Reilly

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To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in climate projections under two different policy scenarios. This study illustrates an internally consistent uncertainty analysis of one(More)
The paper begins with the problem of a firm subject to random productivity shocks drawn from a particular distribution. We are concerned with the case whereby the distribution of the shocks changes without the knowledge of the firm. Over time the firm learns about the nature and extent of the change in the distribution of the shock and adjusts, incurring(More)
In this paper, we present a method to quantify the effectiveness of carbon mitigation options taking into account the ‘permanence’ of the emissions reduction. While the issue of permanence is most commonly associated with a ‘leaky’ carbon sequestration reservoir, we argue that this is an issue that applies to just about all carbon mitigation options. The(More)
We consider per-capita carbon dioxide emission trends in 16 early developed countries over the period 1870-2028. Using a multiple-break time series method we find more evidence for very early downturns in per-capita trends than for late downturns, during the oil price shocks of the 1970s. Only for two countries do downturns in trends imply downward sloping(More)
OBJECTIVES We sought to describe the outcomes of a consecutive series of patients with chronic mesenteric ischemia (CMI) who were treated with percutaneous stent revascularization. BACKGROUND Historically, the treatment for CMI has been surgical revascularization. However, surgery carries a significant procedural complication rate and mortality. METHODS(More)
BACKGROUND A significant number (20% to 40%) of hypertensive patients with renal artery stenosis will not have blood pressure improvement after successful percutaneous revascularization. Identifying a group of patients with refractory hypertension and renal artery stenosis who are likely to respond to renal stent placement would be beneficial. METHODS AND(More)
OBJECTIVES We report outcomes in patients undergoing catheter-based intervention for symptomatic subclavian and innominate artery (S/IA) atherosclerosis. BACKGROUND Symptomatic S/IA obstructive lesions have traditionally been treated with open surgical revascularization. Catheter-based endovascular therapies reduce the morbidity and mortality associated(More)
STUDY DESIGN Three hundred patients, attending their general practitioners with attacks of acute low back pain, formed the subject population for a study of fear avoidance and other variables in the prediction of chronicity. Follow-up was at 2 and 12 months. OBJECTIVE The hypothesis to be tested was that evidence of psychological morbidity, particularly(More)
More than 2.3 million adults in the United States have atrial fibrillation (AF), which exposes them to a 5-fold increased risk of stroke. The left atrial appendage (LAA) appears to be the source of thrombus formation in the vast majority of these patients. Anticoagulation significantly reduces the risk of stroke, but often we encounter patients who have(More)
STUDY DESIGN Eighty-four patients with chronic low back pain were treated using cognitive behavioral principles on a pain management program. Outcome data were collected at four points: 10 weeks before treatment, immediately before and immediately after treatment, and 6 months after treatment. In part 1 of the study, patients were assigned randomly to group(More)