John M. Reilly

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The Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model is the part of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) that represents the human systems. EPPA is a recursive-dynamic multi-regional general equilibrium model of the world economy, which is built on the GTAP dataset and additional data for the greenhouse gas and urban gas emissions. It is(More)
Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Results are simulated through 2100 for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4),(More)
A global biofuels program will lead to intense pressures on land supply and can increase greenhouse gas emissions from land-use changes. Using linked economic and terrestrial biogeochemistry models, we examined direct and indirect effects of possible land-use changes from an expanded global cellulosic bioenergy program on greenhouse gas emissions over the(More)
Clear and quantitative discussion of uncertainties is critical for public policy making on climate change. The recently completed report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessed the uncertainty in its findings and forecasts. The uncertainty assessment process of the IPCC should be improved in the future by using a consistent approach to(More)
At meetings in Bonn and Marrakech in 2001, the Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change broke through an impasse on the detailed provisions needed to allow the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force. Key ingredients in the breakthrough included US withdrawal from the process, an effective relaxation of emissions targets for Japan,(More)
Economic efficiency is a major argument for international emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol. We show that permit trading can be welfare decreasing for countries, even though private trading parties benefit. The result is a case of "immiserizing" growth in the sense of Bhagwati where the negative terms of trade and tax interaction effects wipe out(More)
This study evaluates air pollution-related health impacts on the Chinese economy by using an expanded version of the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model. We estimated that marginal welfare impact to the Chinese economy of ozone and particulate-matter concentrations above background levels increased from 1997 US$22 billion in 1975 to 1997 US$112(More)
This document does not express any regulatory policies of the United States or any of its agencies, or provide recommendations for regulatory action. Further information on the process for preparing Synthesis and Assessment products and the CCSP itself can be found at www.climatescience.gov. Eight members of the Climate Change Science Progam Product(More)