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We propose prior probability models for variance-covariance matrices in order to address two important issues. First, the models allow a researcher to represent substantive prior information about the strength of correlations among a set of variables. Secondly even in the absence of such information, the increased flexibility of the models mitigates(More)
We propose a method for optimal portfolio selection using a Bayesian framework that addresses two major shortcomings of the Markowitz approach: the ability to handle higher moments and estimation error. We employ the skew normal distribution which has many attractive features for modeling multivariate returns. Our results suggest that it is important to(More)
In this paper, we advocate incorporating the economic objective function into parameter estimation by analyzing the optimal portfolio choice problem of a mean-variance investor facing parameter uncertainty. We show that, in estimating the optimal portfolio weights, the standard plug-in approach that replaces the population parameters by their sample(More)
Eye movements across advertisements express a temporal pattern of bursts of respectively relatively short and long saccades, and this pattern is systematically influenced by activated scene perception goals. This was revealed by a continuous-time hidden Markov model applied to eye movements of 220 participants exposed to 17 ads under a free-viewing(More)
corresponding author is Alan L. Montgomery. The authors wish to thank Comscore Media Metrix for their generous contribution of data without which this research would not have been possible. Additionally, we would like to thank Brett Gordon for his help with perl scripting, and Randy Bucklin for his comments. Abstract: Clickstream data provides information(More)
We identify gaps and propose several directions for future research in preference measurement. We structure our argument around a framework that views preference measurement as comprising three interrelated components: (1) the problem that the study is ultimately intended to address; (2) the design of the preference measurement task and the data collection(More)