John C. Hershey

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In 5 studies, undergraduate subjects were given descriptions and outcomes of decisions made by others under conditions of uncertainty. Decisions concerned either medical matters or monetary gambles. Subjects rated the quality of thinking of the decisions, the competence of the decision maker, or their willingness to let the decision maker decide on their(More)
Public health analyses suggest that, in spite of the possibility that pertussis vaccine may cause rare cases of neurological injury, catastrophic risks to individual children are lower if they are vaccinated. A number of parents, however, choose not to vaccinate their children. The purpose of this study was to investigate the decision processes of some(More)
In this study we provide a methodology for investigating the relationships between capacity decisions and selected performance measures for a progressive patient care facility. The methodology is illustrated with published data from a coronary care facility. The facility is modeled using a simulation approach. The utilization rate of each unit, the fraction(More)
One hundred twenty-two members (experts) of the Society for Risk Analysis completed a mailed questionnaire and 150 nonexperts completed a similar questionnaire on the World Wide Web. Questions asked included those about priorities on personal and government action for risk reduction, badness of the risk, number of people affected, worry, and probabilities(More)
To determine relative preferences for different cost-sharing options, we asked a 17% random sample of 2,754 nonunion employees to compare health insurance policies that differed in the level of 1) deductible amount, 2) coinsurance rate, 3) coinsurance limit, 4) maximum liability, and 5) price. Using conjoint analysis, we derived preference curves for each(More)
Cost-effectiveness analysis and other forms of decision analysis are becoming more common in the medical literature and are increasingly influential in the development of health policy. Nevertheless, many clinicians find it difficult to apply policies developed from these analyses to individual encounters with patients. We examine the assumptions behind(More)
BACKGROUND Several laboratory studies have suggested that many people favor potentially harmful omissions over less harmful acts. The authors studied the role of this omission bias in parents' decisions whether to vaccinate their children against pertussis. METHODS Two hundred mail surveys were sent to subscribers to a magazine that had published articles(More)
This paper presents a methodology for estimating expected utilization and service level for a class of capacity constrained service network facilities operating in a stochastic environment. A semi-Markov process describes the flows of customers (patients) through a network of service units. We model the case where one of the units has finite capacity and no(More)