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A New Multinomial Accuracy Measure for Polling Bias
TLDR
A polling accuracy measure for multi-party elections based on a generalization of Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy's two-party predictive accuracy index is proposed, finding that bias is small even for polls with small samples.
The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour
The study of voting behaviour remains a vibrant sub-discipline of political science. The Handbook of Electoral Behaviour is an authoritative and wide ranging survey of this dynamic field, drawing
An atypical ‘honeymoon’ election? Contextual and strategic opportunities in the 2017 French legislative elections
This article places the 2017 French legislative elections in the broader context of confirmatory legislative elections in France. It argues that Emmanuel Macron’s victory, whilst rooted in the
Partisan and religious drivers of moral conservatism
This article assesses the importance of religious affiliation, observance, faith and party choice in categorizing attitudes to two of the most important contemporary moral and ethical issues:
The European dimension in French public opinion
Abstract This article examines the position of Europe and European issues in French public opinion. It considers existing research on the effect of Europe on national politics at élite and mass
The French party system
This book provides a complete overview of political parties in France. The social and ideological profiles of all the major parties are analysed chapter by chapter, highlighting their principal
The 2017 French Presidential Elections.
Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the 2017 presidential elections represents one of the most important disruptions to French political life since the establishment of the Fifth Republic. This book
A seat-level nowcast of the Front National in the 2017 legislatives
We look to forecast the number of seats the Front National (FN) will win in the 2017 legislative election. We use the most recent subnational ballot, the 2015 regional election, to estimate support
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