Jens-Christian Svenning

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase in global temperatures of between 1.4°C and 5.8°C during the 21st century, as a result of elevated CO2 levels. Using bioclimatic envelope models, we evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distributions and species richness of 120 native terrestrial non-volant European(More)
J. Lenoir (lenoir.john@gmail.com), The Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity Group, Dept of Biological Sciences, Aarhus Univ., Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark and AgroParisTech, UMR1092 AgroParisTech-INRA, Laboratoire d’Etude des Ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB), 14 rue Girardet, FR-54000 Nancy, France. J.-C. Gégout, AgroParisTech, UMR1092(More)
The influence of dispersal limitation on species ranges remains controversial. Considering the dramatic impacts of the last glaciation in Europe, species might not have tracked climate changes through time and, as a consequence, their present-day ranges might be in disequilibrium with current climate. For 1016 European plant species, we assessed the(More)
Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity Group, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark, Biometry and Environmental System Analysis, Faculty of Forest and Environmental Sciences, University of Freiburg, 79106 Freiburg, Germany, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Department of Computational Landscape Ecology, 04318(More)
PREMISE OF THE STUDY Near-future climate changes are likely to elicit major vegetation changes. Disequilibrium dynamics, which occur when vegetation comes out of equilibrium with climate, are potentially a key facet of these. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for making accurate predictions, informing conservation planning, and understanding likely(More)
Modularity is a recurrent and important property of bipartite ecological networks. Although well-resolved ecological networks describe interaction frequencies between species pairs, modularity of bipartite networks has been analysed only on the basis of binary presence-absence data. We employ a new algorithm to detect modularity in weighted bipartite(More)
Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also(More)
Upper thermal limits vary less than lower limits among related species of terrestrial ectotherms. This pattern may reflect weak or uniform selection on upper limits, or alternatively tight evolutionary constraints. We investigated this issue in 94 Drosophila species from diverse climates and reared in a common environment to control for plastic effects that(More)
Species distributions are often constrained by climatic tolerances that are ultimately determined by evolutionary history and/or adaptive capacity, but these factors have rarely been partitioned. Here, we experimentally determined two key climatic niche traits (desiccation and cold resistance) for 92-95 Drosophila species and assessed their importance for(More)
Species-rich tropical communities are expected to be more specialized than their temperate counterparts. Several studies have reported increasing biotic specialization toward the tropics, whereas others have not found latitudinal trends once accounting for sampling bias or differences in plant diversity. Thus, the direction of the latitudinal specialization(More)