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Updating: A psychologically basic situation of probability revision
The Bayesian model has been used in psychology as the standard reference for the study of probability revision. In the first part of this paper we show that this traditional choice restricts theExpand
Bayesian reasoning with ifs and ands and ors
Publisher's copyright statement: Copyright c © 2015 Cruz, Baratgin, Oaksford and Over. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY).Expand
Centering and the meaning of conditionals
The centering inference - p & q, therefore if p then q - is important in reasoning research because it is logically valid for some accounts of conditionals (e. g. the probability conditional, according to which a conditional is true if and only if there is an inferential connection between p and q). Expand
What kind of processes underlie decision making in soccer simulation? An implicit‐memory investigation
Abstract Many researchers have used simulation to study the cognitive processes that underlie the decision‐making skills of expert athletes. However, we have seen that these studies used anExpand
Uncertainty and the de Finetti tables
The new paradigm in the psychology of reasoning adopts a Bayesian, or probabilistic, model for studying human reasoning. Contrary to the traditional binary approach based on truth functional logic,Expand
The New Paradigm and Mental Models
In a recent article in this journal, Johnson–Laird and colleagues argue that mental models theory (MMT) can integrate logical and probabilistic reasoning [1]. We argue that Johnson-Laird andExpand
Bayesian reasoning with ifs and ands and ors
The Bayesian approach to the psychology of reasoning generalizes binary logic, extending the binary concept of consistency to that of coherence, and allowing the study of deductive reasoning from uncertain premises. Expand
Betting on conditionals
A study is reported testing two hypotheses about a close parallel relation between indicative conditionals, if A then B, and conditional bets, I bet you that if A then B. The first is that both theExpand
Is the mind Bayesian? The case for agnosticism
This paper aims to make explicit the methodological conditions that should be satisfied for the Bayesian model to be used as a normative model of human probability judgment. After noticing the lackExpand
The psychology of dynamic probability judgment: order effect, normative theories, and experimental methodology
The Bayesian model is used in psychology as the reference for the study of dynamic probability judgment. The main limit induced by this model is that it confines the study of revision of degrees ofExpand