Jean-Baptiste Denis

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A pragmatic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the risks of waterborne Cryptosporidium parvum infection and cryptosporidiosis in immunocompetent and immunodeficient French populations is proposed. The model takes into account French specificities such as the French technique for oocyst enumeration performance and tap water consumption. The proportion of(More)
A novel approach to the quantitative assessment of food-borne risks is proposed. The basic idea is to use Bayesian techniques in two distinct steps: first by constructing a stochastic core model via a Bayesian network based on expert knowledge, and second, using the data available to improve this knowledge. Unlike the Monte Carlo simulation approach as(More)
To assess the impact of the manufacturing process on the fate of Listeria monocytogenes, we built a generic probabilistic model intended to simulate the successive steps in the process. Contamination evolution was modeled in the appropriate units (breasts, dice, and then packaging units through the successive steps in the process). To calibrate the model,(More)
Invasive aspergillosis (IA) is a major cause of mortality in immunocompromized hosts, most often consecutive to the inhalation of spores of Aspergillus. However, the relationship between Aspergillus concentration in the air and probability of IA is not quantitatively known. In this study, this relationship was examined in a murine model of IA.(More)
A quantitative assessment of the exposure to Listeria monocytogenes from cold-smoked salmon (CSS) consumption in France is developed. The general framework is a second-order (or two-dimensional) Monte Carlo simulation, which characterizes the uncertainty and variability of the exposure estimate. The model takes into account the competitive bacterial growth(More)
Noroviruses (NoVs) are the major cause of acute epidemic gastroenteritis in industrialized countries. Outbreak strains are predominantly genogroup II (GII) NoV, but genogroup I (GI) strains are regularly found in oyster related outbreaks. The prototype Norwalk virus (GI), has been shown to have high infectivity in a human challenge study. Whether other NoVs(More)
Stakeholders making decisions in public health and world trade need improved estimations of the burden-of-illness of foodborne infectious diseases. In this article, we propose a Bayesian meta-analysis or more precisely a Bayesian evidence synthesis to assess the burden-of-illness of campylobacteriosis in France. Using this case study, we investigate(More)
Q fever is a worldwide zoonosis caused by Coxiella burnetii. Although ruminants are recognized as the most important source of human infection, no previous studies have focused on assessing the characteristics of the bacterial spread within a cattle herd and no epidemic model has been proposed in this context. We assess the key epidemiological parameters(More)
The uncertainty associated with estimates should be taken into account in quantitative risk assessment. Each input's uncertainty can be characterized through a probabilistic distribution for use under Monte Carlo simulations. In this study, the sampling uncertainty associated with estimating a low proportion on the basis of a small sample size was(More)
Assessing within-batch and between-batch variability is of major interest for risk assessors and risk managers in the context of microbiological contamination of food. For example, the ratio between the within-batch variability and the between-batch variability has a large impact on the results of a sampling plan. Here, we designed hierarchical Bayesian(More)