Jan P.A.M. Jacobs

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Acknowledgements This paper was written during visits of the first author to HEC Montréal, CI-RANO and CIREQ, and of the second author to the research school SOM of the University of Groningen. The hospitality and support of these institutions is gratefully acknowledged. The second author would also like to thank the INE program of the Canadian SSHRC for(More)
This paper reexamines the relationship between trade intensity and business cycle synchronization for 21 OECD countries during 1970-2003. Instead of using instrumental variables, we estimate a multivariate model including variables capturing specialisation, financial integration, and similarity of economic policies. We confirm that trade intensity affects(More)
Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work. We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of indicators from the literature—external, financial, domestic(More)
One of the traditional motivations for building quarterly macroeconometric models is the demand for quarterly forecasts. Models based on annual data conceal higher frequency information and are not considered suffciently informative to policy makers. Two diffculties may encumber quarterly macroeconometric modelling: the lack of observations, i.e. variables(More)
We extend the three-step Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) approach of Kapoor, Kelejian, and Prucha (2007), which corrects for spatially correlated errors in static panel data models, by introducing a spatial lag and a one-period lag of the endogenous variable as additional explanatory variables. Combining the extended KKP approach with the dynamic panel(More)
  • Jan Jacobs, Roelof Salomons, +4 authors Simon Kuipers
  • 1997
and Lonneke Versluijs for background information on MeesPierson real estate index numbers and Datastream series, respectively. Henk Kranendonk kindly provided us with figures on the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis leading indicators; Jan Marc Berk and Focco Vijselaar put figures on the Netherlands' central bank business cycle indicator(More)
The effectiveness of policies to reduce the use of energy depend on the elasticity of substitution between the various inputs and on the rate of technological progress. This paper presents a theoretical model emphasising energy investments' characteristics of uncertainty and irreversibility that result in hypotheses concerning the relative values of(More)