Jan M. van Noortwijk

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In the evaluation of structural reliability, a failure is defined as the event in which stress exceeds a resistance that is liable to deterioration. This paper presents a method to combine the two stochastic processes of deteriorating resistance and fluctuating load for computing the time-dependent reliability of a structural component. The deterioration(More)
To prevent the south west of The Netherlands from ooding the Eastern Scheldt storm surge barrier was constructed has to be inspected and when necessary repaired Therefore one is interested in obtaining optimal rates of inspection for which the expected maintenance cost are minimal and the barrier is safe For optimisation purposes a maintenance model has(More)
Probabilistic design of structures is usually based on estimates of a design load with a high average return period. Design loads are often estimated using classical statistical methods. A shortcoming of this approach is that statistical uncertainties are not taken into account. In this paper, a method based on Bayesian statistics is presented. Using Bayes'(More)
The process industry is increasingly making use of Risk Based Inspection (RBI) techniques to develop cost and/or safety optimal inspection plans. This paper proposes an adaptive Bayesian decision model to determine these optimal inspection plans under uncertain deterioration. It uses the gamma stochastic process to model the corrosion damage mechanism and(More)
A new, analytical, physically based, model of the vertical flow velocity profile and the hydraulic roughness of submerged vegetation has been developed. For the vegetation layer and the surface layer, different turbulence models have been applied. Model simulations correspond well with results from flume experiments reported in literature. Because the(More)
The paper presents a sampling-inspection strategy for the evaluation of time-dependent reliability of deteriorating systems, where the deterioration is assumed to initiate at random times and at random locations. After initiation, defects are weakening the system’s resistance. The system becomes unacceptable when at least one defect reaches a critical(More)
The focus of this paper is on the statistical estimation of parameters in various types of continuous-time Markov processes using bridge condition data in the Netherlands. The parameters in these processes are transition intensities between discrete condition states. These intensities may depend on the current state and on the age of the structure. The(More)
The Netherlands Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management (Rijkswaterstaat) is responsible for the construction, operation and maintenance of a large number of infrastructures. The inventory mainly consists of bridges, tunnels, storm-surge barriers, sluices and highway-signal systems. Rijkswaterstaat spends € 40 to € 50 Million per year on(More)