Jamie Kettleborough

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The range of possibilities for future climate evolution needs to be taken into account when planning climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This requires ensembles of multi-decadal simulations to assess both chaotic climate variability and model response uncertainty. Statistical estimates of model response uncertainty, based on observations of(More)
Predictions of temperature rise over the twenty-first century are necessarily uncertain, both because the sensitivity of the climate system to changing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, as well as the rate of ocean heat uptake, is poorly quantified and because future influences on climate-of anthropogenic as well as natural origin-are difficult to(More)
A method for estimating uncertainty in future climate change is discussed in detail and applied to predictions of global mean temperature change. The method uses optimal fingerprinting to make estimates of uncertainty in model simulations of twentieth-century warming. These estimates are then projected forward in time using a linear, compact relationship(More)
  • M R Allen, N P Gillett, J A Kettleborough, G S Jones, Ae J F B Mitchell, Ae N P Gillett +9 others
  • 2006
We assess the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface temperatures over the latter half of the twentieth century can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change as simulated by a range of climate models. The hypothesis that observed changes are entirely due to internal climate variability is rejected at a high confidence level(More)
Climateprediction.net aims to harness the spare CPU cycles of a million individual users' PCs to run a massive ensemble of climate simulations using an up-to-date, full resolution, three dimensional atmosphere-ocean climate model. The project has many similarities with other public-resource high-throughput activities but is distinctive in a number of ways(More)
project is developing the software necessary to carry out such a project in the public domain. 1 In this article, we describe the development of the demonstration release software, along with the computational challenges such as data mining, visualization, and distributed database management that the project will address in the future. The project(More)
Large-scale distributed computing projects have many security concerns due to their public and often " open " nature. Climateprediction.net (CPDN) is taking the concept of public-resource, high-throughput Grid computing a stage further, by using it for a major piece of modeling research. The aim is to harness the spare CPU cycles of potentially millions of(More)
Simulations of Arctic denitrification using a 3-D chemistry-microphysics transport model are compared with observations for the winters 1994/95, 1996/97 and 1999/2000. The model of Denitrification by Lagrangian Particle Sedimentation (DLAPSE) couples the full chemical scheme of the 3-D chemical transport model, SLIMCAT, with a nitric acid trihydrate (NAT)(More)
Simulations of Arctic denitrification using a 3-D chemistry-microphysics transport model are compared with observations for the winters 1994/1995, 1996/1997 and 1999/2000. The model of Denitrification by Lagrangian Particle Sedimentation (DLAPSE) couples the full chemical scheme of the 3-D chemical transport model, 5 SLIMCAT, with a nitric acid trihydrate(More)
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