James W. McAllister

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Despite the conceptual importance of probability assessment in war, national security officials often approach this challenge in uninformative ways. Previous scholarship on this issue has focused on underprecision, as phrases such as " fair chance " or " serious possibility " have unclear meanings. This paper explains how two additional problems – relative(More)
This paper investigates the ontological implications of the view that evidence about the structure of the world consists of patterns exhibited, with a certain noise level, by empirical data sets. The paper focuses on the following three tenets. I shall first provide grounds for accepting them and then use them as premises in a simple, three-step argument:(More)
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