James P. Boyle

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CONTEXT Although diabetes mellitus is one of the most prevalent and costly chronic diseases in the United States, no estimates have been published of individuals' average lifetime risk of developing diabetes. OBJECTIVE To estimate age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific lifetime risk of diabetes in the cohort born in 2000 in the United States. DESIGN,(More)
OBJECTIVE To project the number of people with diagnosed diabetes in the U.S. through 2050, accounting for changing demography and diabetes prevalence rates. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We combined age-, sex-, and race-specific diagnosed diabetes prevalence rates-predicted from 1980-1998 trends in prevalence data from the National Health Interview(More)
OBJECTIVE At birth, the lifetime risk of developing diabetes is one in three, but lifetime risks across BMI categories are unknown. We estimated BMI-specific lifetime diabetes risk in the U.S. for age-, sex-, and ethnicity-specific subgroups. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS National Health Interview Survey data (n = 780,694, 1997-2004) were used to estimate(More)
A diabetes epidemic emerged during the 20th century and continues unchecked into the 21st century. It has already taken an extraordinary toll on the U.S. population through its acute and chronic complications, disability, and premature death. Trend data suggest that the burden will continue to increase. Efforts to pre- vent or delay the complications of(More)
BACKGROUND People with diabetes can suffer from diverse complications that seriously erode quality of life. Diabetes, costing the United States more than $174 billion per year in 2007, is expected to take an increasingly large financial toll in subsequent years. Accurate projections of diabetes burden are essential to policymakers planning for future health(More)
OBJECTIVE Nearly two decades ago, the National Diabetes Data Group (NDDG) and the World Health Organization (WHO) Expert Committee on Diabetes Mellitus published diagnostic criteria for diabetes. We undertook this study to compare the performance of three glycemic measures for diagnosing diabetes and to evaluate the performance of the WHO criteria. (More)
OBJECTIVES To estimate the number of people with diabetic retinopathy (DR), vision-threatening DR (VTDR), glaucoma, and cataracts among Americans 40 years or older with diagnosed diabetes mellitus for the years 2005-2050. METHODS Using published prevalence data of DR, VTDR, glaucoma, and cataracts and data from the National Health Interview Survey and the(More)
OBJECTIVE To forecast the number of U.S. individuals aged <20 years with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) through 2050, accounting for changing demography and diabetes incidence. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We used Markov modeling framework to generate yearly forecasts of the number of individuals in each of three states(More)
This study develops forecasts of the number of people with diagnosed diabetes and diagnosed diabetes prevalence in the United States through the year 2050. A Markov modeling framework is used to generate forecasts by age, race and ethnicity, and sex. The model forecasts the number of individuals in each of three states (diagnosed with diabetes, not(More)