James O. Lloyd-Smith

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Population-level analyses often use average quantities to describe heterogeneous systems, particularly when variation does not arise from identifiable groups. A prominent example, central to our current understanding of epidemic spread, is the basic reproductive number, R(0), which is defined as the mean number of infections caused by an infected individual(More)
BACKGROUND A randomized controlled trial (RCT) has shown that male circumcision (MC) reduces sexual transmission of HIV from women to men by 60% (32%-76%; 95% CI) offering an intervention of proven efficacy for reducing the sexual spread of HIV. We explore the implications of this finding for the promotion of MC as a public health intervention to control(More)
Host population thresholds for the invasion or persistence of infectious disease are core concepts of disease ecology and underlie disease control policies based on culling and vaccination. However, empirical evidence for these thresholds in wildlife populations has been sparse, although recent studies have begun to address this gap. Here, we review the(More)
Paul C. Cross,* James O. Lloyd-Smith, Philip L. F. Johnson and Wayne M. Getz Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA USGS, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, USA Biophysics Graduate Group, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA Department of Zoology and(More)
More than 60% of human infectious diseases are caused by pathogens shared with wild or domestic animals. Zoonotic disease organisms include those that are endemic in human populations or enzootic in animal populations with frequent cross-species transmission to people. Some of these diseases have only emerged recently. Together, these organisms are(More)
Early theoretical work on disease invasion typically assumed large and well-mixed host populations. Many human and wildlife systems, however, have small groups with limited movement among groups. In these situations, the basic reproductive number, R0, is likely to be a poor predictor of a disease pandemic because it typically does not account for group(More)
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has been transmitted extensively within hospitals, and healthcare workers (HCWs) have comprised a large proportion of SARS cases worldwide. We present a stochastic model of a SARS outbreak in a community and its hospital. For a range of basic reproductive numbers (R(0)) corresponding to conditions in different cities(More)
1) Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, 201 Wellman Hall #3112, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3112, USA (e-mail: pcross@nature.berkeley.edu) 2) Mammal Research Institute, Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa 3) Biophysics Graduate Group, 299 Life Science Addition MC(More)
Few infectious diseases are entirely human-specific: Most human pathogens also circulate in animals or else originated in nonhuman hosts. Influenza, plague, and trypanosomiasis are classic examples of zoonotic infections that transmit from animals to humans. The multihost ecology of zoonoses leads to complex dynamics, and analytical tools, such as(More)
Coinfection of a host by multiple parasite species is commonly observed and recent epidemiological work indicates that coinfection can enhance parasite transmission. This article proposes an immunoepidemiological framework to understand how within-host interactions during coinfection might affect between-host transmission. Cytokines, immune signalling(More)