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The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is expected to raise adult life expectancy in populations with high HIV prevalence. Using data from a population cohort of over 101,000 individuals in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, we measured changes in adult life expectancy for 2000-2011. In 2003, the year before ART became available in the public-sector(More)
When patients receive an intervention based on whether they score below or above some threshold value on a continuously measured random variable, the intervention will be randomly assigned for patients close to the threshold. the regression discontinuity design exploits this fact to estimate causal treatment effects. in spite of its recent proliferation in(More)
BACKGROUND Women have better patient outcomes in HIV care and treatment than men in sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed--at the population level--whether and to what extent mass HIV treatment is associated with changes in sex disparities in adult life expectancy, a summary metric of survival capturing mortality across the full cascade of HIV care. We also(More)
BACKGROUND An estimated 2·1 million individuals are newly infected with HIV every year. Cross-sectional and longitudinal studies have reported conflicting evidence for the association between education and HIV risk, and no randomised trial has identified a causal effect for education on HIV incidence. We aimed to use a policy reform in secondary schooling(More)
BACKGROUND Social protection programs issuing cash grants to caregivers of young children may influence fertility. Grant-related income could foster economic independence and/or increase access to job prospects, education, and health services, resulting in lower pregnancy rates. In the other direction, these programs may motivate family expansion in order(More)
PURPOSE OF REVIEW Randomized, population-representative trials of clinical interventions are rare. Quasi-experiments have been used successfully to generate causal evidence on the cascade of HIV care in a broad range of real-world settings. RECENT FINDINGS Quasi-experiments exploit exogenous, or quasi-random, variation occurring naturally in the world or(More)
Quasi-experimental studies are increasingly used to establish causal relationships in epidemiology and health systems research. Quasi-experimental studies offer important opportunities to increase and improve evidence on causal effects: (i) they can generate causal evidence when randomized controlled trials are impossible; (ii) they typically generate(More)
Income inequality in the USA has increased over the past four decades. Socioeconomic gaps in survival have also increased. Life expectancy has risen among middle-income and high-income Americans whereas it has stagnated among poor Americans and even declined in some demographic groups. Although the increase in income inequality since 1980 has been driven(More)
BACKGROUND Poor clinical record keeping hinders health systems monitoring and patient care in many low resource settings. We develop and validate a novel method to impute dates of antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation from routine laboratory data in South Africa's public sector HIV program. This method will enable monitoring of the national ART program(More)