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The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is expected to raise adult life expectancy in populations with high HIV prevalence. Using data from a population cohort of over 101,000 individuals in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, we measured changes in adult life expectancy for 2000-2011. In 2003, the year before ART became available in the public-sector(More)
BACKGROUND HIV prevalence estimates from population-based surveys are vulnerable to selection bias if HIV status is missing for a proportion of the eligible population. Standard approaches, such as imputation, to correct prevalence estimates for selective nonparticipation assume that data are "missing at random." These approaches lead to biased estimates,(More)
BACKGROUND Unlike other west European countries, there is a long-term trend of rising alcohol consumption and mortality in England. Whether drinking will rise or fall during the current recession is widely debated. We examined how the recession affected alcohol use in adults in England using individual-level data. METHODS We analysed a nationally(More)
The commitment of high-level government leaders is widely recognized as a key factor in curbing national AIDS epidemics. But where does such leadership come from? This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the determinants of AIDS leadership in 54 developing countries, using the 2003 AIDS Program Effort Index "political support" score as an indicator of(More)
AIMS The aim of this study was to assess changes in alcohol use in the USA during the Great Recession. METHODS Drinking participation, drinking frequency, drinking intensity, total alcohol consumption and frequency of binge drinking were assessed in a nationally representative sample of 2,050,431 US women and men aged 18 and older, interviewed between(More)
BACKGROUND An estimated 2·1 million individuals are newly infected with HIV every year. Cross-sectional and longitudinal studies have reported conflicting evidence for the association between education and HIV risk, and no randomised trial has identified a causal effect for education on HIV incidence. We aimed to use a policy reform in secondary schooling(More)
OBJECTIVE To investigate the prevalence of social exposure to a large, government-run ART programme in rural South Africa. METHOD Clinical data on 6681 patients were matched with demographic data on a nearly complete cohort of 102,359 people residing in the programme catchment area. We calculated the proportion of residents in the demographic surveillance(More)
In a randomized controlled study, positive effects were found of a support program for caregivers of dementia patients. The aim of this study is to identify in a secondary analysis the prognostic factors of success of the support program by comparing characteristics of patients and primary caregivers for whom the support program was effective with those for(More)
BACKGROUND Social protection programs issuing cash grants to caregivers of young children may influence fertility. Grant-related income could foster economic independence and/or increase access to job prospects, education, and health services, resulting in lower pregnancy rates. In the other direction, these programs may motivate family expansion in order(More)
BACKGROUND Standard approaches to estimation of losses in the HIV cascade of care are typically cross-sectional and do not include the population stages before linkage to clinical care. We used indiviual-level longitudinal cascade data, transition by transition, including population stages, both to identify the health-system losses in the cascade and to(More)