Mental Budgeting and Consumer Decisions
Consumers often set budgets for categories of expenses (e.g., entertainment) and track expenses against their budget. Because budgets cannot perfectly anticipate consumption opportunities, people may…
Strategies for revising judgment: how (and how well) people use others' opinions.
The authors developed the probability, accuracy, redundancy (PAR) model and found that averaging was the more effective strategy across a wide range of commonly encountered environments and that despite this finding, people tend to favor the choosing strategy.
Overconfidence in interval estimates.
The authors show that overconfidence in interval estimates can result from variability in setting interval widths, and that subjective intervals are systematically too narrow given the accuracy of one's information-sometimes only 40% as large as necessary to be well calibrated.
Intuitions About Combining Opinions: Misappreciation of the Averaging Principle
It is described how people may face few opportunities to learn the benefits of averaging and how misappreciating averaging contributes to poor intuitive strategies for combining estimates.
The MPG Illusion
Using "miles per gallon" as a measure of fuel efficiency leads people to undervalue the benefits of replacing the most inefficient automobiles.
Determinants of Overconfidence and Miscalibration: The Roles of Random Error and Ecological Structure☆
- Jack B. Soll
- 1 February 1996
Abstract Previous authors have attributed findings of overconfidence to psychological bias or to experimental designs unrepresentative of the environment. This paper provides evidence for an…
The social psychology of the wisdom of crowds.
The detrimental effects of power on confidence, advice taking, and accuracy
The wisdom of select crowds.
- Albert E. Mannes, Jack B. Soll, R. Larrick
- PsychologyJournal of Personality and Social Psychology
- 1 August 2014
The select-crowd strategy, which ranks judges based on a cue to ability and averages the opinions of the top judges, is introduced and is shown to be accurate, robust, and appealing as a mechanism for helping individuals tap collective wisdom.