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Psychological sources of ambiguity avoidance
Ambiguity is characterized as uncertainty about the probabilities with which outcomes can occur. Previous research has established that subjects, when given a choice between two options differing in… Expand
External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score
- J. Yates
- 1 August 1982
Two evaluative criteria for probabilistic forecasting performance, consistency with the axioms of probability theory and external correspondence with the events that ultimately occur, are… Expand
Effects of procedural and outcome accountability on judgment quality
Abstract Individuals are said to be accountable whenever their performance is monitored and there are consequences (either tangible or intangible) associated with that evaluation. We propose that… Expand
Foreground:background salience: Explaining the effects of graphical displays on risk avoidance
Abstract The purpose of this research was to determine the mechanisms underlying the graphical effect identified by Stone, Yates, and Parker (1997) , in which graphical formats for conveying risk… Expand
Components of probability judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method.
Abstract An experiment is reported in which subjects assigned probabilities to the outcomes of basketball games and to the truth of general-knowledge items. Three different methods were used for… Expand
Attitudes, decisions, and habits as determinants of repeated behavior.
Effects of numerical and graphical displays on professed risk-taking behavior.
Conjunction errors: Evidence for multiple judgment procedures, including "signed summation"
A conjunction error is a judgment that a conjunctive event is more likely than one of the marginal events comprising the conjunction. Previous research has demonstrated conjunction errors in… Expand
The center and range of the probability interval as factors affecting ambiguity preferences
Abstract Ambiguous decision situations are characterized as having probabilities that are uncertain. The uncertainty is due to the common, real-world deficiency of information about the process by… Expand