• Publications
  • Influence
Too Much of a Good Thing? The Economics of Investment in R&D
Research and development is a key determinant of long-run productivity and welfare. A central issue is whether a decentralized economy undertakes too little or too much R&D. We develop an endogenousExpand
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Measuring the Social Return to R&D
Is there too much or too little research and development (R&D)? In this paper we bridge the gap between the recent growth literature and the empirical productivity literature. We derive in a growthExpand
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Pacific Salmon at the Crossroads: Stocks at Risk from California, Oregon, Idaho, and Washington
Abstract The American Fisheries Society herein provides a list of depleted Pacific salmon, steelhead, and sea-run cutthroat stocks from California, Oregon, Idaho, and Washington, to accompany theExpand
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Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era
The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates constrains the central bank's ability to stimulate the economy during downturns. We use the FRB/US model to quantify the effects of the bound onExpand
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A Black Swan in the Money Market
At the center of the financial market crisis of 2007-2008 was a highly unusual jump in spreads between the overnight inter-bank lending rate and term London inter-bank offer rates (Libor). BecauseExpand
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Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates
We examine the performance and robustness properties of alternative monetary policy rules in the presence of structural change that renders the natural rates of interest and unemployment uncertain.Expand
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The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning, and Expectations
We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore theExpand
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Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants
U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest – the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances – have declined dramatically since the start of the globalExpand
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Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events
Before the recent recession, the consensus among researchers was that the zero lower bound (ZLB) probably would not pose a significant problem for monetary policy as long as a central bank aimed forExpand
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