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Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C
TLDR
Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.
Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates
Models and scenarios on which climate projection are based vary between IPCC reports. To facilitate meaningful comparison, this study provides probabilistic climate projections for different
Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C
A new analysis shows that global warming could be limited to 1.5 °C by 2100, but that the window for achieving this is small and rapidly closing.
Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development
Contributing Authors: Katherine Calvin (USA), Joana Correia de Oliveira de Portugal Pereira (UK/Portugal), Oreane Edelenbosch (Netherlands/Italy), Johannes Emmerling (Italy/Germany), Sabine Fuss
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C
Abstract. Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets
Efforts to limit climate change below a given temperature level require that global emissions of CO2 cumulated over time remain below a limited quota. This quota varies depending on the temperature
Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions
To have a >50% chance of limiting warming below 2 °C, most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). These
Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C
The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 1.5 °C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 0.9 °C from the mid-nineteenth century to the present
Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C
The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively
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