• Publications
  • Influence
Exchange Rate Assessments; CGER Methodologies
The rapid increase in international trade and financial integration over the past decade and the growing importance of emerging markets in world trade and GDP have inspired the IMF to place stronger
Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies
How high can public debt rise without compromising fiscal solvency? We answer this question using a stochastic ability-to-pay model of sovereign default in which risk-neutral investors lend to a
Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries
The relationship between temporary terms of trade shocks and household saving in developing countries is examined. It is first shown that, from a theoretical standpoint, this relationship is
Redistribution, Inequality, and Growth
The Fund has recognized in recent years that one cannot separate issues of economic growth and stability on one hand and equality on the other. Indeed, there is a strong case for considering
Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls
With the global economy beginning to emerge from the financial crisis, capital is flowing back to emerging market countries (EMEs). These flows, and capital mobility more generally, allow countries
What Makes Growth Sustained?
Abstract We identify structural breaks in economic growth in 140 countries and use these to define “growth spells:” periods of high growth preceded by an upbreak and ending either with a downbreak or
Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A 'Fan-Chart' Approach
This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analy-sis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt
Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison
The relationship between real interest rates, saving, and gre is a cen tral issue in development economics. Using iflaCrOecOnOFflic data for c cross-section of countries, we estimate a model in
Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?
The relevance of the exchange rate regime for macroeconomic performance remains a key issue in international macroeconomics. We use a comprehensive dataset covering nine regime-types for one hundred