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Exchange Rate Assessments; CGER Methodologies
- Jaewoo Lee, J. Ostry, A. Prati, L. Ricci, G. Milesi-Ferretti
- Economics
- 7 April 2008
The rapid increase in international trade and financial integration over the past decade and the growing importance of emerging markets in world trade and GDP have inspired the IMF to place stronger…
Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies
- A. Ghosh, Jun Il Kim, E. Mendoza, J. Ostry, M. Qureshi
- Economics
- 1 February 2011
How high can public debt rise without compromising fiscal solvency? We answer this question using a stochastic ability-to-pay model of sovereign default in which risk-neutral investors lend to a…
Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries
- J. Ostry, Carmen M. Reinhart
- EconomicsSSRN Electronic Journal
- 1 October 1991
The relationship between temporary terms of trade shocks and household saving in developing countries is examined. It is first shown that, from a theoretical standpoint, this relationship is…
Redistribution, Inequality, and Growth
- J. Ostry, A. Berg, Charalambos G. Tsangarides
- Economics
- 17 February 2014
The Fund has recognized in recent years that one cannot separate issues of economic growth and stability on one hand and equality on the other. Indeed, there is a strong case for considering…
Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls
- J. Ostry, A. Ghosh, K. Habermeier, M. Chamón, M. Qureshi, Dennis Reinhardt
- Economics
- 19 February 2010
With the global economy beginning to emerge from the financial crisis, capital is flowing back to emerging market countries (EMEs). These flows, and capital mobility more generally, allow countries…
What Makes Growth Sustained?
- J. Ostry, Jeromin Zettelmeyer
- EconomicsSSRN Electronic Journal
- 1 July 2007
Abstract We identify structural breaks in economic growth in 140 countries and use these to define “growth spells:” periods of high growth preceded by an upbreak and ending either with a downbreak or…
Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A 'Fan-Chart' Approach
- Oya Celasun, Xavier Debrun, J. Ostry
- EconomicsSSRN Electronic Journal
- 1 March 2006
This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analy-sis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt…
Tools for managing financial-stability risks from capital inflows
- J. Ostry, A. Ghosh, M. Chamón, M. Qureshi
- Economics
- 1 November 2012
Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison
- M. Ogaki, J. Ostry, Carmen M. Reinhart
- EconomicsSSRN Electronic Journal
- 1 January 1995
The relationship between real interest rates, saving, and gre is a cen tral issue in development economics. Using iflaCrOecOnOFflic data for c cross-section of countries, we estimate a model in…
Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?
- A. Ghosh, Anne-Marie Gulde, J. Ostry, H. Wolf
- EconomicsSSRN Electronic Journal
- 1 November 1995
The relevance of the exchange rate regime for macroeconomic performance remains a key issue in international macroeconomics. We use a comprehensive dataset covering nine regime-types for one hundred…
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