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The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle
Almost all recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations has worked with seasonally adjusted or annual data. This paper takes a different approach by treating seasonal fluctuations as worthy of study…
Why Does Inflation Differ Across Countries?
This paper attempts to explain the differences in inflation performance across countries. Earlier research has examined this topic, but it has considered only some of the factors that might be…
Seasonal Unit Roots in Aggregate U.S. Data
Financial Panics, the Seasonality of the Nominal Interest Rate, and theFounding of the Fed
- J. Miron
After the founding of the Fed in 1914, the frequency of financial panics and the size of the seasonal movements in nominal interest ratesboth declined substantially. This paper establishes that the…
The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,” with N. Gregory Mankiw
- J. Miron
- 1 May 1986
We reexamine the expectations theory of the term structure using data at the short end of the maturity spectrum. We find that prior to the founding of the Federal Reserve System in 1915, the spread…
The Economics of Seasonal Cycles
- J. Miron
- 1 November 1990
Since macroeconomists first began the systematic study of aggregate data, they have grappled with the fact that most economic time series exhibit substantial seasonal variation. In general,…
Alcohol Consumption During Prohibition
We estimate the consumption of alcohol during Prohibition using mortality, mental health and crime statistics. We find that alcohol consumption fell sharply at the beginning of Prohibition, to…
Seasonality of births in human populations.
This paper re-examines the seasonality of births and surveys the leading hypotheses about birth seasonality that have appeared in the literature and discusses the consistency of these hypotheses with observed seasonal patterns.
The Budgetary Implications of Marijuana Prohibition
Executive Summary • Government prohibition of marijuana is the subject of ongoing debate. • One issue in this debate is the effect of marijuana prohibition on government budgets. Prohibition entails…
Global Patterns of Seasonal Variation in Human Fertility a
- D. Lam, J. Miron
- Economics, Environmental ScienceAnnals of the New York Academy of Sciences
- 1 February 1994
It is shown that seasonality has increased in this century in some high income, low fertility populations such as Sweden and several other populations with substantial seasonal variations in births, suggesting that other factors play an important role in birth seasonality.