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A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability
Examining onsets of political instability in countries worldwide from 1955 to 2003, we develop a model that distinguishes countries that experienced instability from those that remained stable with aExpand
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Democratic Transitions
Przeworski et al. (2000) challenge the key hypothesis in modernization theory: political regimes do not transition to democracy as per capita incomes rise, they argue. Rather, democratic transitionsExpand
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Nationalism: Five Roads to Modernity
Introduction 1. God's Firstborn: England Reflection of the National Consciousness in Discourse and Sentiment The New Aristocracy, the New Monarchy, and the Protestant Reformation The English Bible,Expand
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State Failure Task Force Report: Phase II Findings
In response to a request from Vice President Al Gore in 1994, the CIA established "The State Failure Task Force," a group of independent researchers to examine comprehensively the factors and forcesExpand
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Toward a Fourth Generation of Revolutionary Theory
Third-generation theories of revolution pointed to the structural vulnerabilities of regimes as the basic causes of revolutions. In the last decade, critics of structural theories have argued for theExpand
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A Global Forecasting Model of Political Instability
Prior studies of civil conflict using panel studies or econometric models have provided inconsistent results. This paper presents the resu lts of a new study, using case-control methods, to identifyExpand
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Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World.
What can the great crises of the past teach us about contemporary revolutions? Arguing from an exciting and original perspective, Goldstone suggests that great revolutions were the product ofExpand
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