• Publications
  • Influence
The End of “Lowest‐Low” Fertility?
Period fertility rates fell to previously unseen low levels in a large number of countries beginning in the early 1990s. The persistence of Total Fertility Rates under 1.3 raised the possibility ofExpand
  • 439
  • 39
  • PDF
Marriage Delayed or Marriage Forgone? New Cohort Forecasts of First Marriage for U.S. Women
Do recent declines in first marriage rates signal that an increasing proportion of women will remain single their entire lives, or merely that they are postponing marriage to older ages? OurExpand
  • 596
  • 37
  • PDF
The emergence of Sub-Replacement Family Size Ideals in Europe
Period fertility started to drop significantly below replacement in most Western European countries during the 1970s and 1980s, while most fertility surveys, value studies and opinion polls haveExpand
  • 364
  • 28
  • PDF
Fertility reactions to the 'Great Recession' in Europe: Recent evidence from order-specific data
OBJECTIVEThis paper provides recent cross-national evidence of the impact of the great recession on fertility in Europe in the context of the recent decade.METHODSUsing data from the Human FertilityExpand
  • 182
  • 15
  • PDF
Has East Germany overtaken West Germany? Recent trends in order-specific fertility.
Some 20 years after reunification, the contrast between East and West Germany offers a natural experiment for studying the degree of persistence of Communist-era family patterns, the effects ofExpand
  • 132
  • 13
  • PDF
New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World: Rises, Falls, and Reversals
With period fertility having risen in many low-fertility countries, an important emerging question is whether cohort fertility trends are also reversing. We produce new estimates of cohort fertilityExpand
  • 140
  • 10
  • PDF
Bayesian Forecasting of Cohort Fertility
There are signs that fertility in rich countries may have stopped declining, but this depends critically on whether women currently in reproductive ages are postponing or reducing lifetime fertility.Expand
  • 44
  • 9
  • PDF
The leveling of divorce in the united states
Is the recent plateau in crude divorce rates due to compositional changes in the married population or to a fundamental change in the long-term trend of rising marital instability? I use refinedExpand
  • 96
  • 5
How 4.5 Million Irish Immigrants Became 40 Million Irish Americans: Demographic and Subjective Aspects of the Ethnic Composition of White Americans.
In 1980 for the first time the U.S. Census contained a subjective question about ethnic identity. Natural increase intermarriage and subjective identification contribute to the current size of eachExpand
  • 127
  • 5
A Secular Trend toward Earlier Male Sexual Maturity: Evidence from Shifting Ages of Male Young Adult Mortality
This paper shows new evidence of a steady long-term decline in age of male sexual maturity since at least the mid-eighteenth century. A method for measuring the timing of male maturity is developedExpand
  • 50
  • 4
  • PDF