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Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States
TLDR
Should the current positive AMO (warm North Atlantic) conditions persist into the upcoming decade, it is suggested two possible drought scenarios that resemble the continental-scale patterns of the 1930s and 1950s drought.
Mesoscale Disturbance and Ecological Response to Decadal Climatic Variability in the American Southwest
Climatic variables such as radiation, temperature and precipitation determine rates of ecosystem processes from net primary productivity to soil development. They predict a wide array of
A tree‐ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 A.D.
We present a tree‐ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which demonstrates that strong, low‐frequency (60–100 yr) variability in basin‐wide (0–70°N) sea surface
APPLIED HISTORICAL ECOLOGY: USING THE PAST TO MANAGE FOR THE FUTURE
TLDR
A montane grassland restoration project in northern New Mexico is described that was justified and guided by an historical sequence of aerial photographs showing progressive tree invasion during the 20th century, and a south- western network of fire histories illustrates the power of aggregating historical time series across spatial scales.
Fire-Southern Oscillation Relations in the Southwestern United States
TLDR
Synchrony of fire-free and severe fire years across diverse southwestern forests implies that climate forces fire regimes on a subcontinental scale; it also underscores the importance of exogenous factors in ecosystem dynamics.
Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change
TLDR
Warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations, which introduces uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.
Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions
TLDR
Greater predictive capacity, and more-fundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.
The Unusual Nature of Recent Snowpack Declines in the North American Cordillera
TLDR
This work evaluates the uniqueness of recent declines using snowpack reconstructions from 66 tree-ring chronologies in key runoff-generating areas of the Colorado, Columbia, and Missouri River drainages to assess fundamental impacts on streamflow and water supplies across the western United States.
Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science
TLDR
This work outlines how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability and predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies.
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